Glory's Last Shot for Rory ....or the Anchormen?

The final Major of the year returns to Whistling Straits in Wisconsin for the third time having hosted in 2004 and 2010 when Vijay Singh and Martin Kaymer emerged victorious in play-offs. The Pete Dye course is now infamous for the amount of bunkers on the course, rumoured to be in the number of circa 1000, depending on who's review you read and of course for the 2-shot penalty that was inflicted on Dustin Johnson for grounding his club in the wasteland deemed to be a bunker. Given the amount of bunkers and sand on the course and the controversial ruling from five years ago, the PGA have gone to great lengths this week to remind all the players and caddies of the ruling so as to avoid any confusion. We shall probably see a lot of referees being called upon this week !

Rory McIlroy has declared himself fit, 100% fit and has been seen running up banks proving his ankle is strong and despite the layoff represents some value @ current odds of 12/1 to win here on a course he finished just one shot outside the playoff last time to finish third. Its a long course and with reports that its playing soft at present, it should be an ideal opportunity for him. Jordan Spieth starts as favourite and why not? Winner of the Masters and US Open and agonizingly one shot away from the playoff at St Andrews, Spieth is in fantastic form and we can expect to see him contend again this week but he's not worth backing for this one given that this Major has a tendency over the years to produce first time Major winners along with some "shock" winners. Spieth will play alongside the defending champion, McIlroy, as well as Open Champion, Zach Johnson so expect plenty of TV coverage from this group. Interesting to note also that Zach also finished alongside Rory at -10, five years ago here so he arrives this week with fond memories and recent Major success to instill a lot of confidence. If he plays his wedges anything like he has the past couple of tournaments he may make the 50/1 on offer a bargain price.

I so want to back Dustin Johnson here....but having failed so badly the weekend at St Andrews when he was looking like a winner at the half way point and having had his chance at Chambers Bay, I can't back him @ 16/1. I'd love to see him break through here though, revenge and all that but he bloody deserves a Major and the sooner he wins one, the better chance he has of adding another. I'll be rooting for him as well as the Irish contingent of course, once some money can be banked first !

As per my shortlist on Monday, I really do fancy the chances of Paul Casey this week. He's lost two play-offs already this season at the Northern Trust and Travelers Championship and despite a disappointing effort at The Open, Casey responded with a nice TOP20 last week at Firestone. The Englishman finished T12th here back in 2010 so has good course form (he missed the cut in 2004 though) and if he brings his solid tee to green game here he can make a bold effort and join the First-time-Major-winners-at-the-PGA Club. From his eighteen starts on the PGA Tour this year he has recorded six TOP10s! He could so easily have two wins also. He ranks 10th on tour for Strokes-Gained-Tee-To-Green and he's no slouch off the tee either sitting nicely within the TOP40. He's 5th in GIR and if he can put together a week of solid putting, then Casey can win here or at least present a perfect back-to-lay investment on the exchanges. I'm feeling quietly confident for the former Irish Open Champion. 

Justin Rose normally competes well on Pete Dye tracks but has had poor form at Whistling Straits in the past. However, Rose has been playing extremely well of late and but for a shed load of missed putts, particularly at Tigers event, The Quicken Loans, he would have won. Can't argue though his form of late though. Winner at the Zurich Classic in April having finished runner up to Spieth at Augusta with a score that would normally be good enough to win, Rose has returned figures of 2-27-6-4-3 in his last five starts. He's in form and knows how to win and at 20/1 with Paddypower (paying 6 places) he cannot be ignored.

This is of course the last Major that we'll see the "Anchor Men" and it could be just the case that we have the last winner here as we had Keegan Bradley winning the PGA Championship as the first to do so. Adam Scott has been quiet in 2015 but since Steve Williams has returned to the bag he's produced TOP10s at Chambers Bay & St Andrews. He was 39th here in 2010 and 9th in 2004. Whistling Straits should be right up the Aussies creek this week, and Ladbrokes have him available at 33/1 for 6 places, just too big a price for a man who can turn it on here. 

Matt Kuchar may wobble if in contention on Sunday but if he enters the final round just off the pace he may have the tools to go close this week. Four TOP10s and another six TOP20s from his twenty events already this season yet again show his consistency and his TOP10 on this course five years ago can aide his attempt to break his maiden tag for the Majors. He was TOP25 last week at Firestone which is worth noting as the winner here has usually finished within that TOP25 at Firestone since the events have been staged back to back. "Smiler" will be there or thereabouts and at a generous 66/1, with Ladbrokes again, he has to be included.

Of the "outsiders" I am tempted by Robert Streb @ 80/1. Streb meets a lot of the "criteria" for this week in that he finished 5th last week in Akron, has won on tour already this year and is a maiden in the Majors. Seven TOP10s since his win last October proves this is a player to watch out for as his TOP20 at The Open backs up. Hes ranked 25th on Tour for Strokes-Gained-Putting and 29th for Stokes-Gained-Tee-To-Green. The 28 year old lies 5th in the FedEx Cup rankings, so he's playing solidly all year round.



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The Open ...er British open ...or the best Major - 2015

It's The Open this week, or as some people call it , The British Open. Somewhere along the line though it has become more known as The Open but whatever its title, it sure is one of the top golfing tournaments, steeped in history and tradition. One of those traditions is to call the winner this week, "Champion Golfer of 2015", a flattering title indeed. Should Jordan Spieth succeed, we'll have no doubts as to who the real champion golfer is but should he come up short I'm sure we'll still be referring to the young Texan as the champion golfer at present. We are at St. Andrews for the first time since 2010, where Louis Oosthuizen took advantage of the draw the first two days and skipped away from Rory McIlroy and co to win by seven ! Following his great effort at Chambers Bay last month, "Shrek" is being tipped by many to go well again here this week and "defend". We won't of course have the defending Open Champion, Rory McIlroy, due to his ankle injury, which is a great pity. Spieth will attempt to become the first to win the Open having won on US soil the week previously and is a worthy favourite to do so. At double the price though, I'm inclined to stick with my US Open tip, Dustin Johnson @ 14.00. He makes his first appearance since three putting the 72nd hole in Seattle but he has shown in the past that he can win very quickly after Major setbacks. He's a different person these days, he's spent a lot of family time recently and St. Andrews gives him a great opportunity to break his Major duck. The home of golf has always suited the bigger hitters and DJ has the power to reach par 4s this week even taking the wind into account; he also has a superb short-game and his putting stats will surprise many. Of course, can he putt when the pressure is on ? He loves links, has won at Pebble Beach and has gone close at Chambers Bay and Whistling Straits. Speaking of the Straits, next months PGA Championship returns there and we could be more excited for that than this should DJ prevail this week ! We had the "Big 3" of years before when Jack, Arnie & Gary Player took golf onto the world stage and we could quite possibly be entering a another "Big3" era with Rory, Jordan & DJ. Imagine if DJ won this and the PGA next month !

Can DJ win though ? Yes I think he is the man to beat this week. His driving will make scoring a lot easier where fairways are wide and greens are big, DJ has the short game to take advantage and he seldoms three putts (er....his last bit action was exactly that which cost him the US Open I hear you say). He was down the field in 2010 here following his efforts at Pebble Beach the month before when GMac prevailed but we have a more polished player these days and he's older and wiser. He's proven before he can bounce back from disappointment quickly and he looks better prepared for St Andrew's than Jordan Spieth. He's a win bet @ 14.00

St Andrews, links courses, and Majors are just the sort of challenges that Martin Kaymer thrives on. He may not be having the best of seasons so far but there have been significant signs of late that a return to the winners enclosure is not far away. He played well in his second round at Royal County Down in May despite having no chance of making the cut and showed up on the leaderboard at Le Golf National a couple of weeks ago. Kaymer can produce the goods any given week and on links he is a player to contend with. 44.00 cannot be ignored. (40/1 for 7 places )

My old favourite Ross Fisher has played well in The Open before, has solid links form and showed last week at Gullane that his game is in fine nick for this one. Progressive form over recent weeks augurs well and he is also lucky to have an early tee time Thursday which according to ever changing weather forecasts suggests he may have the luck of the draw. Let's hope it pans out that way for him should he get a good start. One thing to note over previous St Andrews Open's, is that just 1 player, Jack Nicklaus, has managed to overcome a deficit of more than 2 shots after round one and win- all other winners were within those two shots. Ross is my outside bet this week @ 230.00 for the win and 7.00 for a TOP20.

I've also added Marc Warren & Joost Luiten into my staking plan. Both have shown many times that they excel on links courses and both are in form with Warren almost snatching the Scottish Open with a final round 66 last Sunday and Luiten also placing. Neither will be affected by the wind and bad weather and represent decent value @ 170.00 and 150.00 respectively. The TOP20 offers of 6.00 & 6.50 are also decent value.



Staking Plan

3.5 pts WIN D.Johnson @ 14.00
1 pt e/w M.Kaymer @ 40/1 (7 places)
.25 pts e/w R.Fisher @ 150/1 (8 places)
.25 pts e/w M.Warren @ 150/1 (6 places)
.25 pts e/w J.Luiten @ 125/1 (8 Places)

2 pts TOP20 M.Warren @ 6.00
2 pts TOP20 J.Luiten @ 6.50
4 pts TOP20 R.Fisher @ 7.00

Scottish Open 2015 - Gullane Golf Club

We've been treated to some wonderful golf tournaments the past month featuring Europe's finest and following a very competitive Irish Open at Royal County Down, this week's Europeantour event heads to Gullane Golf Club for the first time for the Scottish Open for another instalment of links golf. Rickie Fowler is back following a decent effort in Ireland and he is joined by fellow Americans in, ever-present Phil Mickelson, Ryan Palmer, Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar, Peter Uihlein, Brooks Koepka, Brendan Steele, Ben Martin, Dan Berger, Cameron Tringale as well as former Open Champion, David Duval. They have competition though as defending champion Justin Rose heads the betting.

It looks as if we will have a stern test this week with the weather expected to throw in some wind and it should mean that our focus should concentrate on those that have links experience. There are many in the field that do and perhaps Ireland's Shane Lowry is the pick of the bunch along with South African, Branden Grace. The Irishman does offer me some value @ 33/1 this week and was one of the first down on the shortlist for this to follow on from his strong showing at Chambers Bay where he produced a TOP10. He finished down the field at RCD but hung in there despite putting for most of the second round with his wedge, (although Robert Streb seemed to fare much better last week than Shano). Lowry, of course, won the Irish Open at Baltray and is a well experienced links player and will always relish these events in pretty much the same vein as compatriots, Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke, both former Open Champions. Shano will be rested following his TOP30 in Munich last time out and he can take confidence from his results the past three years at Royal Aberdeen and Castle Staurt where he finished 4-31-11. He'll be out for a bold showing the next two weeks before he takes up his temporary PGA Tour membership and he is bound to figure this week to keep recent form tipping along.

Pablo Larrazabal won in Munich, took last week off and returns to Scotland where he finished 11th last year and 16th in 2012.  He's 9/13 this season with 5 TOP20s which also included a TOP3 in Morocco.Pablo has a further two T10s in Morocco as well as  a handful of T10s in Holland at the Kennemer, not to mention solid efforts when winning at the Open de France and Abu Dhabi against quality fields. Those courses and Pablo's form indicate the Spaniard's fondness for links golf. We know what we get with Pablo, mercurial to say the least but he's a winner and if he gets into contention he'll fight it out to the end. He's also streaky, and he will be buoyed by his latest win following early season frustration. Perhaps he handed out too many shirts last season (promised to donate his playing shirts every time he missed the cut) or else it served as motivation, but Pablo cannot be ignored this week @ 76.00 or indeed 4.00 for TOP20.

Marc Warren @ 67.00 for the Scottish Open is another decent price for me.  He's been third in his home open twice the past three years! He was a decent TOP30 at Chambers Bay too yet he missed the cut at RCD. He's a three time winner on tour with those wins coming at the Scandanavian Masters at Barseback GC, the Johnnie Walker at Gleneagles and the Made in Denmark at Himmerland. Warren thrives on links and seems to play well on home soil. From his ten starts this season he's posted five TOP20's and the 3.75 for another here is worth taking. He commented on twitter this week that Gullane was "flawless", so let's hope he puts in performance to match the description.

Lastly, I tried to talk myself out of having an interest in Padraig Harrington here. Yes he missed the BMW PGA at Wentworth due to shoulder injury but he did show up on day one at RCD to lead. He again showed up on day one at the recent Travelers Championship with a 66 before missing the cut, but the signs are there that he can still go low and can add to his European Tour win tally of 14 soon. Double Open Champion, Harrington used to play the Irish PGA prior to the Open to fine tune his game so he'll be approaching this week in very much the same way as Phil Mickelson will.  125/1 e/w is tempting as is the 6.00 for TOP20. I'm also interested in the 100/1 e/w First Round Leader (FRL).

Staking Plan (11.25 pts)
1.0 pts e/w S. Lowry @ 33/1
.50 pts win P. Larrazabal @ 76.00
.50 pts win M.Warren @ 67.00
.25 pts win P.Harrington @ 126.00
.50 pts e/w FRL P.Harrington @ 100/1

TOP20
3 pts TOP20 P. Larrazabal @ 4.00
2 pts TOP20 M.Warren @ 3.75
2 pts TOP20 P.Harrington @ 6.00

Open de France 2015

Another short preview this week for the Open de France to be staged once again at Le Golf National outside Paris. Graeme  McDowell goes for three in a row but arrives lacking in confidence and his chances look slim despite obvious liking for the 2018 Ryder Cup venue. Martin Kaymer made my shortlist especially @28/1 but he is just not making cuts at the moment to warrant a bet so I've had to side with in form Tongchai Jaidee and American,Brendan Steele as well as Korean, Bjeung Hun An also @ 33/1. 

In the top 20 markets I've gone with the following as per my tweets yesterday ;

2 pts D. Fichardt @ 7.50

2.5 pts A. Canizares @ 5.50

2.5 pts A. Lahiri @ 6.5

E/w selections: (1 Pt e/w)

B. An @33/1

T. Jaidee @ 33/1

B. Steele @ 33/1