Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Joburg Open 2014

The blog went with a new approach last week and delivered the winner in Stephen Gallacher for the second time in two years. Despite taking the Scot to win @ 25/1 without the 3 favourites (Tiger, Rory, Henrik) I was well pleased with the approach taken especially as Robert Rock also delivered a TOP20 in finishing 5th. Again there were ties for 5th meaning reduced place money, and its this reason that I again look at TOP10/TOP20 markets for this week's Joburg Open. Having spent time myself in Joburg on business back in 2005, and having passed by the Royal Johannesburg & Kensington GC on the way to work, its an event that I always look forward too. 210 players tee it up this week where Charl Schwartzel & Richard Sterne go for hat-tricks.

I'm delighted to see my man Ross Fisher play here this week as its a course I think will suit him very nicely. He hasn't participated here before, hence why the 33/1 is available I'm sure, (plus the fact he missed the cut last week also), but Ross can win provided he gets a decent start. I like seeing him go out early Friday morning having posted a good opening round so hopefully the draw is kind to him here. 33s is definite value for me where the tournament will be played over the West & East course the first 2 days and then the East over the weekend. His length will be a big bonus, he just needs to get a good start.

I'm getting excited about the 150/1 on offer for India's, Gangajeet Bhullar here too. Yes, he too hasn't played here before but he's a player playing consistently well of late.He did miss the cut in Dubai also, but form beforehand was solid and I think he can compete here. Having finished T22nd in Qatar and T10 in Abu Dhabi, he'll be rested and ready to produce four more solid rounds in Joburg. The 25 year old can hit it around 300 yds off the tee and is fairly accurate with it so he's not without a chance this week. He'll find plenty of home comforts in Joburg too.

I really do like the chances of England's Danny Willet @ 33/1. He's played here the past 5 years, missed the cut last year but has 2 TOP5s and a TOP15 to his record. He played very well in the Middle East with results of 13-43-19. Willet ranks 15th for GIR, is due a big week and is one of those simmering for that big week.Couldn't be in better form playing a course that he has excellent form on.

The tournament is usually won by a South African so I've no choice but to include one and I must back Thomas Aiken, a Joburger @ 25/1. I thinks thats a great price for a player, who like most South Africans, plays his best on home soil as proven here by his results of 6-24-3-mc-12, the past 5 years. He arrives back home in fine form with a week off last week following results of 5-19-8 the three previous weeks. Ranks 5th in GIR, knows these courses well and could be in for a good week.

Staking Plan (12 pts/units)

1 pt WIN R.Fisher @ 33/1   Skybet
1 pt WIN T.Aiken @ 25/1    Titanbet
1 pt WIN D.Willet @ 33/1    Ladbrokes
0.5 pts e/w G.Bhullar @ 150/1 Titanbet

To complete my staking plan I'm backing some form players for TOP 10 finishes with Betpack or Stan James. 

1 pt T.Aiken @ 4.0
1 pt G.Bhullar @ 15.0
1 pt Emiliano Grillo @ 6.00
1 pt Jaco Van Zyl @ 6.0
1 pt Jbe Kruger @ 9.0
1 pt Robert Rock @ 5.0

TOP 20
1 pt D.Drysdale @ 4.50
1 pt G.Bhullar @ 7.0

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