Tuesday, 27 May 2014

Nordea Masters 2014

The Nordea Masters moves from Bro Hof to a fairly new course outside Malmo this week called the PGA Sweden Lakes Course which opened in 2010. Peter Hanson and Henrik Stenson may have some knowledge of the course but for most of the players this is very much a new course. However, the course was used for the Challenge Tour in 2011 where Ricardo Santos won by 3 shots on –16. The 7400 yard par-72 proved to be a birdie fest of sorts that week. Ireland’s, Colm Moriarty finished T9th. The 9th,17th & 18th holes are sourounded by a massive lake but the main features of the course appear to be it’s multiple bunkers and small greens. Emphasis may well lie on those with a good short game alongside efficient GIR stats.

The One to Beat

Henrik Stenson will go off strong favourite this week and he could very well be in a different league to the rest, so it might be prudent to wait and see if any bookmaker (skybet?) will offer a “without Stenson” market, which may become available Tuesday. Stenson is beginning to show his class this season and once he hits his stride he tends to keep form. Hard to see him getting beat this week but the favourites don’t always win and with the bookies making the European Number One favourite and most likely at 8/1 we can find the value down the field

From the Pack

Stenson’s compatriot, Jonas Blixt will be an interesting prospect here. Now a regular on the PGA Tour, Blixt has shown a level of consistency of late that should see him contend. Frenchman, Victor Dubuisson may be an interesting competitor here as well as another local, Peter Hanson.  Blixt may not represent much value at 22/1 though although he will have his supporters. Italian Francesco Molinari though, is arguably the in-form player without a win of late. In fact, just 3 wins to date on tour is a poor return for a player of his capability, and the last of those was back in 2012. Recent form suggests he’s about to click but an infrequent winner needs to be at a decent price before backing, and he most certainly isn't worth chancing at best price 16/1.

My Selections

He may have been selected last week at Wentworth but despite missing the cut, Felipe Aguilar will remain a betting prospect if price discates value. Aguilar excels off the tee and in GIR and can bounce back from last week’s disappointment.  Anything over 50/1 here is value and worth keeping the faith with as he may have just been a victim of the draw in Surrey where he had no worse than a bogey on any of his 36 holes. He’s kept onside especially as Betpack go 70/1

Bristol native, Chris Wood is returning to form and with 3 TOP10s in his previous 6 starts prior to the BMW PGA, he may be another to contend very shortly for another win. Has played in the Nordea Masters and previously named SAS Masters in Sweden in the past with results of 22nd & 18th.40/1 is just about on the mark for me.

Scotsman, Richie Ramsay has returned from injury recently and has just played 7 tournaments on tour this season having grabbed 2 TOP5s already as well as another Top15. The former Irish Amateur Stokeplay Champion can go low, really low on any given day and having won twice on the Challenge Tour and twice on the European Tour since 2010, the Aberdeen man could be one to keep an eye on over the next few weeks and hopefully this is the week he gets back into the winners enclosure and he too can be backed at 70/1 with Betpack

Finally, Spaniard Pablo Larrazabal will always give you a run for your money and should a price around the 40/1 mark be available, he’s worth a dabble. He is with almost with 90% of the books but once again Betpack  go better with a price of 50/1 still available this morning. Tied 7th at Wentworth having missed the cut at his home Open the week before, was his 2nd TOP10 in his last 4 starts. Has already won on tour this season in Abu Dhabi and can contend here off the back of bringing home Rory McIlroy to the winners enclosure yesterday

Completing my interest this week is the inclusion of my "10 To Win Soon" stable for the Nordea Masters which consists of 8 players meeting the minimum price. Check out my take on players that over long term I am expecting to be in profit. (for the purposes of that page I'll keep those selections seperate from the main staking plan) here

Staking Plan

1 pt e/w   C.Wood @ 40/1
0.75 pts e/w F.Aguilar @ 70/1
0.75 pts e/w R.Ramsay @ 70/1
0.75 pts e/w P.Larrazabal @ 50/1

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