Ireland's Paul Dunne made it a hat-trick of first time winners on the European Tour last Sunday when winning the British Masters fending off the weekend charge of Rory McIlroy. Romain Wattel and Lucas Bjeergaard got their maiden wins in the previous two weeks and the list of first time winners for the season also includes Sam Brazel, Renato Paratore, Adrian Otaegui, Jason Norris. Former Challenge Tour winners also broke through this season to win for the first time on the Europeantour including Jordan Smith, Julian Suri, Matt Wallace and Dylan Frittelli bringing the overall first time winners to 11! Excluding the Majors & WGCs, thats a 31% return for the season. It's also worth noting their age group and it'll be quite interesting to see how they and that age group fare this week in Scotland in an event that has been kind to the more experienced players.
It was a frustrating result for the blog in Newcastle on Sunday,as the main bet, Darren Fichardt T-20 market, failed by a shot when he finished in a tie for 26th, with the damage coming at one hole on Saturday as the South African somehow took 8 on the par-3 5th !
We go again this week for the Pro-AM format where a list of previous winners tells us we should be focusing on top class links players and maybe the more experienced who can break the sequence of maiden winners on the tour.
The Shortlist contains those who I think can go close to a win and/or indeed a TOP20. Thanks to that charging weekend scoring of Rory McIlroy, we've no doubt got some decent prices available with Rory shortening at the head of the market.
Tommy Fleetwood returns to action having become a father last week, his form here and indeed in Scotland can't be ignored and if he's on a high with the "nappy factor" he'll be the man to beat this week.He went off the boil last month but perhaps the impending fatherhood was on his mind. He returns to action at an event and courses that he loves and will be in a relaxed mood. The pro-am format could just be the ideal event for his return too and the early show of 26.00 is tempting as too is the 26.00 on offer for former winner
Branden Grace who could be smarting after being on the wrong end of the President's Cup in New York where he left with a contribution of 2 points.
I put up
Peter Hanson here last year @160.00, and I have him priced
@ 126.00 this year so the value is there again with a best early price of 200.00 . The Swede turns 40 this week but arrives in poor form and the price reflects that but I wouldn't be surprised to see him up his game this week. Oliver Wilson sprang from nowhere to finally win on tour here in 2014 and the previous year David Howell did the same when winning for his 5th and last time on tour. The "experienced" players may take heart this week given the rise of the young guns this season and with the format in place here being different as well as the winning trend in recent years. We've seen these type of players come out of nowhere for this event and kick start their careers again and this year, we have a number of players hoping to do just that again. Hanson could fall into this category and find a great week within him and so too could former winner Martin Kaymer @ 41.00
Kaymer is a relaxed individual and his demeanour is obviously suited to the slog that the celebrity pro-ams offer as shown by his record here having posted a further 4 TOP10s. They say form is temporary, class is permanent and with Martin Kaymer, that long awaited victory can't be far away for a player of enormous class. This week is ideal at an event he loves and is my main outright pick at the price.
Alexander Bjork arrives rested and having finished 20-16-25-31 in his last 4 events which included Himmerland and The Dutch courses. He's 19/23 this season with 9 T-20s (3 T-10s). The price of 5.00 for his 10th T-20 of the season is fair but I do think Peter Hanson has a shot in this market at almost twice the price (9.00) Nacho Elvira was next on the list, his T20 price of 5.00 has some value but the Swede gets the nod.
Ireland's Gavin Moynihan gets an invite this week and whilst he seeks a card for next season either via Challenge Tour or the Qualifying Stage, this is the type of tournament that he could be expected to excel in. Given his good mate and former Walker Cup team mate, Paul Dunne won just last week, Gavin can be inspired to raise to those levels and take heart from his result at Portstewart during the summer where he finished TOP Irishman for a TOP15 at The Irish Open. If it's a links player you want this week and one that plays well in wind,rain, mud and whatever shite gets thrown up, then Gavin Moynihan has gotta be on the radar. Twice winner of the Irish Amateur at Royal Dublin not to mention being denied a third by a playoff defeat, his performances there came in atrocious conditions. He also won the Scottish Amateur at Panmure in very windy conditions in 2014. Honing his game at
The Island Golf Club, links golf is his forte. Paul Dunne repeated Moynihan's success at Close Hall last week (Gavin winning on the Euro Pro tour at Close Hall earlier this season) and whilst a win here this week would be a surprise, a solid showing on the leaderboard wouldn't. Gavin partners Brett Desmond, son of Dermot Desmond (who plays with Robert Karlsson) and husband of Andrea Corr. Gavin needn't worry about the post round drinks bill ! 21.00 TOP 20 for me
1.50 pts e/w M. Kaymer @ 41.00
5.00 pts T20 P.Hanson @ 9.00
2.00 pts T20 G.Moynihan @ 21.00
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