Tuesday 10 October 2017

Italian Open 2017 - GC Milano

The season continues to be a frustrating one for the blog but I'm determined to end the year with a positive result. I liked Hatton's chances for last week, but he didn't make my shortlist. Reason being I didn't think there was value there. I spent a bit of time reviewing my selections over the course of the year and continued my review by looking at selections that performed in better seasons. Without coming to a decisive conclusion however, I did conclude that I am spending too much time analyzing price each week. Golf betting is different than a 8 or 12 horse race, or a two sided football or tennis match, and the tournaments will generally have 156 players teeing it up each week and whilst we can safely say that 50% of the field wont win, we can have a lot more possibilities than any other sport. Can we hone in on the "TOP30 probables" each week and find the winner, perhaps we can but can we back them all ? I'll often do my tissue and find 30+ players showing what I perceive is value, settle on say 15, then select 3-5 for final staking plan and leave the winners out. The TOP20 market is a market I want to focus on, but the fun in golf betting is backing the 50/1 shot or better still the 100/1+ winner. Having analyzed my results from 2009- 2011, I could tell from my notes, that my picks were based on players who I believed would be in form for that event, with little emphasis on the value of those selections. I'm not suggesting we start doing a Jeremy Chapman and backing the market leaders, (in fairness, we can't knock that approach either as those that do go by that approach seem to be ahead this season), but I'm changing my thought process and redoing my shortlist approach going forward. This weekly blog will return to focusing on getting results without getting too caught up on the reasons why the selections are made. Well,what I mean is, I wont be spending as much time writing the previews trying to convince myself and followers why I think such and such a player is a bet.

We have a decent field gathering this week in Milan for a Rolex Series event. The Italian Open had a decent field last year when players were getting together in advance of the Ryder Cup, but the money on offer this year ensures we have plenty of top contenders teeing it up. Jon Rahm, winner of the Irish Open at Portstewart during the summer tees it up here and starts favourite. He's too short, enough said! Frani Molinari is worth a second look at 17.00, but for me, Matty Fitzpatrick is the one I want to be on board with here. He was 3rd on debut two years ago and followed up with a 16th last year. A recent winner too at The European Masters, Fitzpatrick has found form with two T-15s at the British Masters & Dunhill Links. Golf Club Milano is an old course dating back to 1928 and can be considered a "traditional/technical" course where the fairways will be tree-lined emphasizing accuracy from tee to green although last years statistics indicated that the approach shot was the key factor rather than finding the fairways. It's a course suited to his game and @ 26.00 he's a bet for me.

I do think Tommy Fleetwood will go well this week following a return to action last week but I backed him here last year @ 75.00 (T-10 @ 7.00, where he duly obliged) and I can't bring myself to do so at 23.00 here especially with the Fitzpatrick price. I did price him a lot lower last week but it was in part due to the format and courses, I can't back him at this price this week. (Lets see if the new approach is flawed already). Instead I'll get onside with Joost Luiten @ 90.00. The Dutchman has two TOP5s in his last 4 visits to the Italian Open albeit at different courses (Circolo Golf Torino & Royal Park Roveri) but he's finding form of late and can raise his game for an event of this stature this week. He can do so on the back of solid GIR stats last week and perhaps clinch his third TOP5 if not a win on a third course.

I can't leave Darren Fichardt out here. But for that snowman in Newcastle, he would have yielded a big return for the blog that week, and he played well enough last week to suggest he is continuing solid form. He may not go on to win but @ 250.00 he's worth a quid or two, but @ 9.00 for that TOP20 I want to go again in the hope that he makes it 4 in a row having finished inside the TOP20 the past 3 years in Italy.

Finally, Romain Wattel is included to follow up on his maiden win in Holland and his T-15 last week in Scotland. He has form in Italy too, having posted 38-10 here in Milan the past two years as well as 11-8 the previous two years again. At 100.00 he's worth a shot in the e/w markets.

Selections (10 pts)

2.00 pts win M. Fitzpatrick @ 26.00
0.50 pts e/w J. Luiten @ 90.00
0.25 pts win D. Fichardt @ 250.00
0.25 pts e/w R. Wattel @ 100.00

6.25 pts TOP20 D. Fichardt @ 9.00

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