Monday 8 January 2018

Goodbye 2017 !

The blog went into nosedive throughout the last quarter of 2017 with no returns whatsoever from the 27 selections costing over 61 pts loss. The first half of the year was nip n tuck and awash with quite a few near misses so the damage was really only felt towards the end of the season. Having spent some time over the festive season reviewing the year, the renewed focus this year will be on getting the staking plan correct. The aim is to concentrate more on players over the 40/1 price that represent some value and find those value TOP10 & TOP20s. The PGA Tour is proving to have real potential each week specifically in the side markets so I intend to get more involved in those as well as more threeball for rounds 1& 2. Whilst  2017 was the worst on record for the blog, I am strangely confident of a decent new year as long as the change in focus and discipline kicks in. The aim is to stop the trend of three losing years in the past four and return to the early days! From 45 shortlists last year, we found 15 winners with an average price of 15/1. Most of these were missed as they didn't constitute "value" in my opinion and even the 80/1 selection was left behind. I will take solace in the fact I am looking at the right players still, but I accept that the staking plan was wrong and didn't formulate the weekly stakes accordingly to the markets that I entered.

My approach will be different from the past, I hope! There will be more emphasis on players at a good price, coming into an event with form and relatively "warmed-up". I don't really want to side with a player who is playing his 4th week on the trot, especially on the European Tour where travel becomes a factor(see strategy#3 below). He should have shown course form preferably in recent years(#2 & #7) and I'll also consider players who will have either won(#8) or placed second(#4) on previous start. Form is proving key on the tours, and there may be some profits to be capitalized on (#1). The strategies I will introduce this year may be enhanced as the season progresses, or as I build my own database. I'm interested in seeing the performances of players who may play a week ahead of a tournament that may be defending(#5) or have won in recent years as there does seem to be a trend of players sub-consciously raising their game in advance of that event and doing so at decent odds (#6).

The weekly aim is 6-10 points from a starting bank of 200 points.

The weekly previews may touch more on what type of player I like for the event and who I expect to go well which may feed into how I'm approaching Playon & Draftkings lineups. With Draftkings only recently available to us here in Ireland, this may take time to figure out and the shortlists may change, but for now I'll continue to publish Mondays and include the new strategy criteria. The Shortlists can be found here

My Strategies for 2018



Strategy #Strategy Description
1Recent Form - includes a T-10 in one of last 3 starts - odds >41.00
2Recent form - includes a T-10 in one of last 3 events, and has previous course form ( odds > 41.00
3Recent form - arrives not having played 3 weeks in a row but showing progressive results inside T-30. odds > 41.00
4Finished 2nd LTO
5Defending Champion
6Player is defending Champion next week - can tend to hit form week prior to defending
7Course form - Has more than 2 T-10s in the past 5 years - odds > 34.00
8WON LTO




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