Hong Kong Open 2018 - Fanling GC, HK

The new season kicks off for the Europeantour this week at the Fanling Golf Club for the Hong Kong Open. Surprisingly, the field is boosted by Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia,Tommy Fleetwood and Rafa Cabrera-Bello, not to mention Matthew Fitzpatrick and Lucas Bjeergaard.

Fanling is not a big course and measures ~6800 yds, par-70. There a number of dog-legs on the tree-lined course and it will suit the short accurate hitters. That said, Scott Hend did succeed here in 2014, and others such as Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose have also prevailed. The latter two being of high calibre would suggest this is a course where you need to bring your A-game.

I couldn't see much value in the markets leaders and as I made my book to 100% , I has them as per the table below. Only Fitzy & Bello would interest me slightly but as the tournament has produced some decent price winners along the way, I've had a go at some that offers some value to me.

Player	My Shortlist	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds	My % Book
Patrick Reed		7.5	7	13	7.69%
Tommy Fleetwood		7.5	7	11	9.09%
Sergio Garcia		8.5	8	11	9.09%
Rafael Cabrera Bello		12	10	15	6.67%
Matthew Fitzpatrick	Matthew Fitzpatrick	13	13	17	5.88%
Lucas Bjerregaard		17	17	34	2.94%

Table-1: Market Leaders


I settled on the following shortlist of 5 (Table-2), from an initial 7-man list. The 2 players dropped were Miyazato Yusaku & Rashid Khan but I'm taking both of them in the TOP-20 market @ 9.50 and 13.00 respectively.

My Shortlist	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds	My % Book	Value (Y/N)	T-10 Odds	T-20 Odds
Andrew Johnston	71	67	61	1.64%	YES	7.5	3.5
Alejandro Canizares	81	81	67	1.49%	YES	8	4
Thongchai Jaidee	201	201	176	0.57%	YES	13	5.5
James Morrison	201	201	176	0.57%	YES	13	6
	251	251	176	0.57%	YES	21	9.5
Siddikur Rahman	301	301	276	0.36%	YES	23	9
	501	501	301	0.33%	YES	34	13

Table-2: 7-Man Shortlist

The remaining 5 players make up my staking plan for this week's Hong Kong Open

Date	22/11/2018			Total Outlay	10.00
Event	Hong Kong Open			Total Returns	0.00
Tour	EURO			P&L	-10.00
Outlay	10.00			ROI	-100.00%
Return	0.00
			6.60			0.00
Stake	Player	Odds	Total Cost of Bet	Terms	Result	Returns
1.00	Andrew Johnston	71.00	2.00	E/W		0.00
1.00	Alejandro Canizares	81.00	2.00	E/W		0.00
0.50	Thongchai Jaidee	201.00	1.00	E/W		0.00
0.50	James Morrison	201.00	1.00	E/W		0.00
0.30	Siddikur Rahman	301.00	0.60	E/W		0.00
			3.40			0.00
Stake	Player	Odds	Total Cost of Bet	Market	Result	Returns
2.00	Miyazato Yusaku	9.50	2.00	TOP-20		0.00
1.40	Rashid Khan	13.00	1.40	TOP-20		0.00