South African Open 2019 - Randpark GC, Joburg

A shift in schedule sees the South African Open taking the shape of previous Joburg Opens where over 230 players will tee it up at Randpark GC in Johannesburg this week. As always with these co-sanctioned tournaments in South African , we can expect one of the home players to prevail and the market is lead by former Open Champion, Louis Oosthuizen. He's in good company though with fellow countrymen,  former US Masters champ, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace, Dylan Frittelli, Dean Burmester, Erik Van Rooyen and Justin Harding all claiming strong claims to their National Open title this week.

My shortlist this week settled on 12 players, of value in some way. Of the 12, 6 players showed considerable value, highlighted green in the below list. If I dutched the 6 players in the outright win market for accumulative odds of 10/1 (11.00), looking for a return of 275.00, I think we could trade successfully throughout the 4 days.

I want to get Gavin Moynihan into the staking plan though as the Dubliner is in form and the course should suit. A TOP-10 in Valderrama in October was followed up by a successful Q-School campaign and a further TOP-20 (T-11th) in Mauritius last week. At 6.00 for a TOP-20 here is about fair so chancing either a TOP-10 @ 15.00 or e/w for 8 places (paddypower) @ 101.00 or 7 places @ 151.00 (skybet, betway,betfred) could be worthwhile.  I'll chance the TOP-10 @ 15.00.

Instead of dutching the 6 players in the outright win market, I'll play the each-way markets as per staking plan below.

Player	My Shortlist	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds	My % Book	Value (Y/N)
Branden Grace	Branden Grace	13	14.8	13	7.69%	YES
Erik Van Rooyen	Erik Van Rooyen	31	30	29	3.45%	YES
Justin Harding	Justin Harding	41	42	41	2.44%	YES
Sean Crocker	Sean Crocker	41	48	36	2.78%	YES
George Coetzee	George Coetzee	51	44	31	3.23%	YES
Darren Fichardt	Darren Fichardt	56	70	34	2.94%	YES
Richard Sterne	Richard Sterne	61	71	41	2.44%	YES
Scott Vincent	Scott Vincent	67	76	41	2.44%	YES
Brandon Stone	Brandon Stone	67	65	41	2.44%	YES
Bernd Wiesberger	Bernd Wiesberger	67	80	41	2.44%	YES
Gavin Moynihan	Gavin Moynihan	151	238	151	0.66%	YES
Trevor Fisher Jnr	Trevor Fisher Jnr	176	190	151	0.66%	YES

Table-1 SA Open Shortlist

Staking Plan

1.00 pt e/w G. Coetzee @ 51.00 (5 places)

1.00 pt e/w D. Fichardt @ 51.00 (8 places)

1.00 pt e/w R. Sterne    @ 51.00 (7 places)

1.00 pt e/w S. Vincent  @ 67.00 (8 places)

1.00 pt e/w B. Stone     @ 51.00 (8 places)

1.00 pt e/w B. Wiesberger @ 67.00 (7 places)

3.00 pts TOP-10 G. Moynihan @ 15.00