The Birdie Club

Its the second edition of the European Tour's Oman Open this week. The event will be played at the critically acclaimed, Greg Norman designed Al Mouj GC outside Muscat. Its is a links style course that should also see wind as a factor for the players. Joost Luiten, fresh off a TOP-10 in Mexico last week, defends. At a general 9-10/1 favourite, he is sure to have his followers and despite his proven links record and hot recent form, it's fair to say that Luiten isn't exactly a renowned winner and thus he's a bit short for my liking here.


Proven links players are the centre of focus for the week. Last years final leaderboard had links proven players such as Chris Wood, Matthew Southgate, Robert Rock and Stephen Gallacher amongst the T-10. The Challenge Tour hosted 3 Grand Finals here as well as two Oman Classicsand the leaderboards then also pointed to players who like the conditions. From my shortlist below I finalized on 22 players that have links in their armoury. 12 of those I deem of value which I've dutched for a win

My Shortlist	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds	My % Book	Probability	EV	Value (Y/N)
Joost Luiten	10		15	6.67%	0.07	-0.333	NO
Ross Fisher	25		19	5.26%	0.05	0.316	YES
Alexander Levy	22		26	3.85%	0.04	-0.154	NO
Jordan Smith	25		41	2.44%	0.02	-0.390	NO
Justin Harding	30		41	2.44%	0.02	-0.268	NO
Minwoo Lee	35		51	1.96%	0.02	-0.314	NO
Chris Wood	40		29	3.45%	0.03	0.379	YES
Lucas Herbert	50		41	2.44%	0.02	0.220	YES
Romain Langasque	45		61	1.64%	0.02	-0.262	NO
Paul Dunne	40		34	2.94%	0.03	0.176	YES
Marcus Kinhult	35		51	1.96%	0.02	-0.314	NO
Paul Waring	50		46	2.17%	0.02	0.087	YES
Pablo Larrazabal	55		41	2.44%	0.02	0.341	YES
Robert Rock	66		67	1.49%	0.01	-0.015	NO
Bradley Dredge	75		67	1.49%	0.01	0.119	YES
Matthew Southgate	70		71	1.41%	0.01	-0.014	NO
Thomas Aiken	100		81	1.23%	0.01	0.235	YES
Brandon Stone	100		81	1.23%	0.01	0.235	YES
Joachim B Hansen	80		101	0.99%	0.01	-0.208	NO
Renato Paratore	100		81	1.23%	0.01	0.235	YES
Marc Warren	175		151	0.66%	0.01	0.159	YES
Gavin Moynihan	250		201	0.50%	0.00	0.244	YES

As per my post in January I'll track the dutching system against my weekly cards. This weeks card will include some round-1 threeballs which I will update Wednesday evening

	Date	28/02/19			Total Outlay	10.00
	Event	Oman Open			Total Returns	0.00
	Tour	EURO			P&L	-10.00
	Outlay	10.00			ROI	-100.00%
	Return	0.00
				10.00			0.00
	Stake	Player	Odds	Total Cost of Bet	Terms	Result	Returns
	2.00	R. Paratore	7.00	2.00	win		0.00
	1.00	R. Fisher (1/5 - 7 places)	26.00	2.00	e/w		0.00
	1.00	C. Wood (1/5 - 6 places)	51.00	2.00	e/w		0.00
	1.00	P. Larrazabal (1/5 - 7 places)	51.00	2.00	e/w		0.00
	2.00	G. Moynihan TOP-20	11.00	2.00	win		0.00