Wednesday 15 January 2020

Abu Dhabi Championship 2020

They used to use the tagline "Expect the Unexpected" for this Tournament, but I'd wager no-one expected the downfall of Martin Kaymer here in 2015 when infamously, he let a 10-shot lead in the final round slip to lose out to Gary Stal. The German hasn't won anywhere since. The former World Number One and two time Major Champion tees it up this week once again looking to find a result on a course that he has won three times on, as well as a further 4 TOP-6s. At 50/1 he'll have his backers,;he was tempting for me also but I've decided to not chase Martin Kaymer returns just yet, he does owe me nothing over the years, so whilst I do expect a big year from Kaymer, it's a watching brief for me here this week.....I will expect the expected!

This Championship is now part of The Rolex Series and that means that we should  start looking at the cream of the entries. Open Champion, Shane Lowry defends this week and he warmed up nicely last week by finishing runner-up to Wade Ormsby in Hong Kong. The Irishman has a Major, a WGC and a Rolex Series win under his belt and his goal this year is obvious....make the Ryder Cup European Team. He won't be the only player motivated to get a good result here and grab as many points as possible and they'll have to compete for those points against some high competition, including an American invasion in the Middle East in the shape of Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, Bryson de Chambeau towards the head of the betting market. Of these three, it's Cantlay I'd prefer, but @ 10/1 I'd rather look for a bit of value down further. I'll do so,well aware that these Rolex Series events are being taken out by the leading golfers about, with just a couple of exceptions to date.

Thomas Pieters is (was) on my staking plan here despite trying to talk myself out of it. You take a chance on the Belgian Bomber each week and I've pondered whether I should take the 30/1 here or leave for another day, but his course form can't be ignored. This is a ball strikers course and Pieters has been fairly consistent since he took out the Czech Masters last August, finishing TOP-10 in 6 out of the next 10 tournaments. (as I review this post before publishing, Pieters' odds have dropped significantly enough for me to discard from the staking plan this week and be talked out of it!)

From my shortlist, I looked long and hard at Matty Fitzpatrick,Bernd Wiesberger,Danny Willett, George Coetzee,Ryan Fox, Rafael Cabrera Bello and Pablo Larrzabal. Of these, the price that stood out most for me was that of 75/1 - 80/1 about George Coetzee. Bernd Wiesberger's price is slightly better then expected, only just whilst the kiwi, Fox's @ 110/1 - 7 places was better than my 100s. Coetzee is my selection in the each way market here @ 75/1 - 8 places. Coetzee showed a gradual return to form towards the end of 2019 following time off through injury and he played nicely last week in Johannesburg to finish 6th. He recorded two TOP-25s in Mauritius & the Alfred Dunhill previous to that. I actually had him @ 55/1 for this week. He did miss the cut here the last two years and whilst there have been course changes over the recent years, he does hold Middle East Form and indeed posted 3 TOP-10s between 2012 -2014 here.Well capable in the wind, big George is a play at the price.

The aforementioned Ryan Fox arrives fresh for the new season, so it remains to be seen if he can hit the ground running. His last three visits yielded 27-39-19. A brace of TOP-30s in December though at the Australian Open & PGA championships suggest that his form is decent enough and he won't arrive totally cold, and hes taken in the TOP-20 market @ 5.50 to maintain that sort of form for a return.

Selections:

1 pt e/w George Coetzee @ 76.00 - 8 places
3 pts TOP-20 Ryan Fox @ 5.50


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