Dubai Desert Classic 2020

The Dubai Desert Classic is hosted yet again at The Emirates GC. I was lucky enough to walk the course this time twelve months ago and follow Matty Fitzpatrick, Thomas Pieters and Lucas Bjerrgaard in one group whilst also keeping an eye on Martin Kaymer and Rafael Cabrera Bello on the Friday morning before catching a flight home. The course was immaculate but the one thing that I was surprised at was how much it has changed since `Mark James won the inaugural event in 1989. The Emirates course is a fully established parkland course these days with the sand surrounding the fairways of little impact to these players. Its most definitely a ball strikers course and the roll of honour down the years shows a pretty impressive list of who's who of World golf!There has been 8 different Masters winner here as well as Open & US Open Champions seeing victory also down the years. Being "desert golf" its easy to speculate that this would be a links-type golf course but the maturity of the course of the years leads me to believe this is no longer the case. Strong tee to green game is required here and those players that played and excelled in that department down the road in Abu Dhabi are likely to be in the mix here come Sunday.

Tommy Fleetwood left it all too late in Abu Dhabi as he clicked into gear over the weekend. He said though afterwards he was delighted to start the year so strongly and he'll take that positivity into this week where he can boast a pair of TOP10s in his 10 starts to date. It's not great form considering 2 missed cuts to boot and some lowly finishing positions but this is a much established Tommy Fleetwood these days.He finished runner-up last week to back up his runner-up finish in Dubai last November at the World Tour Championship finale a couple of blocks away. Prior to these last two starts, Tommy took out the Nedbank Challenge. Needless to say hes been in cracking form since the Autumn and last week's 2020 debut will do him no harm here this week.

Matty Fitzpatrick perhaps should have finished higher than his 16th placing 12 months ago when he tied alongside Fleetwood having started so well, but I was very impressed with his course management on that Friday morning and the way he was building his new relationship with Billy Foster on the bag. Perhaps this was highlighted more so by Thomas Pieters woeful course management that day but the Sheffield youngster was deadly with his approach play and there was a lot to like last week in Abu Dhabi too.

Last week I briefly mentioned those on my shortlist that were considered before finalizing my staking plan and this list included Fitzy, Wiesberger and Cabrera Bello, all three who have to be seriously considered here! Pieters,who was initially on my staking plan last week but dropped at the last minute once I had missed the price, is not considered this week having witnessed his game-plan during Round-2 at The Majlis last year. So as for Fitzpatrick, I expect a bold showing this week considering he was 4th in Abu Dhabi in the SG:ATG with +1.65 strokes.

Matt was very unlucky not to win on tour last year but I don't expect him to be waiting for the W for much longer. This is a big year and I feel we will see a lot of the Englishman over the next 9-10 months. He's not a bet though @ 12/1 with the bookies, but I'l back him on the exchange at 20.00 instead.

I wanted to see how Martin Kaymer played last week and I was impressed. He has opened at 40/1(now into 33s) for the Dubai Desert Classic and thats much better then my 28/1 tissue. Kaymer has decent form here, has reunited with his long term caddy, Craig Connolly, and looks to make a charge for the Ryder Cup team. 4 TOP-4s in his last 9 starts augurs well and indeed during the lean times he still managed a yield of 24-19-23 the past 3 years at The Dubai Desert Classic.

Renato Paratore bucks the trend in comparison to the two players above but he's a player I think can improve greatly this year too. No real form here at The Emirates GC to write about (mc-mc-42-26-13) but his recent form suggests he could improve on that here this week. A TOP-20 at the Dunhill was followed up by a runners-up placing in Mauritius, indeed it was a 3-man playoff where he lost out to Rasmus Hojgaard. He opened his 2020 campaign with a nice 21st placing last week. The price attracts me in here as the Italian could out perform the implied chances and he's included in the TOP-20 market @ 5.00

I will chance a bet on Romain Wattel putting in a decent effort this week. Having lost his card, the Frenchman will be keen to return to tour ASAP and this week gives him a chance to go about climbing the points ladder. He played on the Mena Tour last week in a Dubai Desert qualifying tournament, The Area Shootout at the Ras Al Kaimah and duly won the 36 hole event by 6.Much lower grade of course but the result and performance will do his confidence a load of good. He has shown form here before too, finishing 16th twelve months ago, 3rd in 2014 and a 12th in 2012. He's not without a chance of making the cut and producing another one of these finishes again and so he's chanced in the TOP-20/40 markets @ 12.00 & 4.50


Selections:

1.50 pts M. Fitzpatrick to win @ 20.00
1.00 pts e/w M.Kaymer @ 34.00 (1/5 - 7 places)
2.00 pts R. Paratore TOP-20 @ 5.00
1.50 pts R. Wattel TOP-20 @ 12.00
3.00 pts R. Wattel TOP-40 @ 4.50