A punters account of weekly golf bets and free tips on the European Tour (now DP World Tour) and the PGA with some LPGA & Challenge Tour selections. This blog is intended for readers over 18 years of age
A tough examination awaits the players this week at the Valspar Championship where Copperhead has proved over the years to be one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. Accuracy off the tee and ball striking from the fairway are the order of the week and its nice to see the top two in world golf, Dustin Johnson & Justin Thomas tee it up, with both looking to improve on recent form. Thomas, despite winning at Sawgrass won't contend here this week if he drives the way he has been doing the past 6 weeks or so. The tightness should refocus him in this department but both he and DJ are no-bets this week at the prices.
I enjoy watching this event more from a golfing perspective than a betting one but I am having an interest in the shape of, yet again, Adam Hadwin along with Kevin Kisner. The latter has refocused his approach to tournaments on the tour in that he feels he can only compete at certain courses but does admit he will play at longer courses as ".....because they give a lot of money for 20th". He hasn't contended here much in his 3 visits (a best of 24th on last visit in 2019) and he has failed to make the cut in his last 3 events so he's not altogether a confident selection but his price accounts for this @ 70/1 - 8 places. Its just a tentative play here for me this week in the outright with a TOP-20 also a play @ 5.00
Hadwin though is of interest - having backed him a couple of time already this year, the conclusion is that he tends to fare better on these high-scoring events and the hope is that he does the same again this week. The winner here in 2017 and T12th when defending was followed up by a mc in 2019, so he is comfortable here and can improve on his T-25 in Texas last month and T-10 at The Honda previously @ 80/1 - 8 places.
The second of the 3-event Canaries Swing sees yet another short course in operation this week when the European returns to Golf Costa Adeje for the first time since 2003 when the Open de Espana was held here. Market leader, Antoine Rozner joins the swing this week but unfortunately, Wil Besseling has had to withdraw having positive for covid-19. A windy birdie-fest seems to be on the cards again this week so the approach is to stick with players in form that are hitting greens and sinking putts...i.e. players that are scoring well. The difference this week is that we have 6no. Par-3s and 5no. Par-5s so those who are striking irons well and playing par-3s well must be considered.
I put up Alejandro Canizares last week based on recent form and was surprised his price stood up. He was never winning after a tame opening round but he did play well thereafter eventually finishing 38th albeit a long way back from Higgo. That means his price is still value this week and I'm happy to go again based on same reasoning as last week @ 100/1 - 7 places. Whilst par-3 scoring rankings show little gains being achieved to the field, the Spaniard has been scoring well on par-5s and if he starts better this week we should see a decent run from him.
Having put up Thorbjorn Olesen twice already this year only to see him withdrawn on both occasions due to covid-19, it was a little frustrating to see him place last week on his seasonal debut. His compatriot though, Joachim B Hansen has shown a level of consistency this and last year on the Challenge Tour to suggest he can put in another good result this week having finished 7th last week following a 9th place finish in Qatar. 28/1 - 6 places is probably the lowest I'd take him at but the consistency suggests he is worth chancing this week.
Guido Migliozzi was 15th last week to post his 3rd T-20 in his 7 starts this year on the European Tour. his 2nd place finish in Qatar the highlight losing out to Antoine Rozner despite a closing 65 at a windy Doha. At 33/1 he too is on the limit but feel this is a good week for him and he's included on the staking plan for me.
Two players who did present some value to me this week are players I've backed recently in the forms of Dean Burmester and Marcus Armitage. The latter is playing solid enough of late with a 4th in Austria and 10th in Kenya and @ 50/1 - 7 places for this field strength he does have a chance. The South African is hot n cold but the course this week should be to his liking where his aggressive play could be to an advantage. He's as good as anyone in this field and probably is a little overpriced @ 50/1 - 6 places too.
Not an awful lot of value I think this week, so reduced stakes for me with 5 players unusually for me on the staking plan taking 7 places where I can and 6 in others.
Back to its slot after the Masters, The RBC Heritage once again takes place at Hilton Head GC, South Carolina, a course that does not favour big hitters but as shown over the years, steady accurate type players. I like this course and the event, if only the scoring could be tightened up someway.
Just two players for me here - unlike the Austrian Open, I found quite a number of players represented some value and it proved difficult to decide on a final shortlist. Ideal tournament to get involved in on the exchange if you have the free time to enjoy all 4 days. Carlos Ortiz is of interest to me @80/1 - 8 places here. 33rd on his debut last year isn't overly exciting but the warm up is complete and he'll be glad to get back to bread and butter stuff this week following missed cuts last time out at both Augusta & Sawgrass. Prior to those events, the Mexican was playing well, and from his 15 starts this season he's got a WIN and a further 2 T-10s and 2T-20s to lie 21st in the FedEx Cup rankings. He's gaining shots on the field this season in a few categories and referencing the excellent data-golf trend database, he is +1.36 on recent form. I made him ~66s for this track and am happy to have a punt over some of the others that were shortlisted.
Stewart Cink is enjoying a great 12 twelve months of golf having won last year and continued decent form into 202. The former Open Champion has posted 6 T-20s from his 14 starts this season including a 12th place finish at Augusta last week and 19th at the Honda last time out previously. 125/1 is a good price for this (I would have taken 90s) and if we see some wind then I like his chances even more.
Main Europeantour action returns to mainland Europe this week where we are once again back at the Diamond Country Club , just an hour northwest of Vienna.
I've tried to find some decent value here this week but have struggled really to focus on who is more likely to outplay their odds given 1/ the long layoffs in between events and 2/ decipher if the April slot for Diamond CC will show a different trend than in the past when played later in the season. Joost Luiten is the course "specialist" here having returned the following results below (most recent to the left/ I did not count Shot Clock Masters in 2019 as a guide for course form....should I have?)
