Thanks to yet another calendar change for the Irish Open this year I find myself not on holidays this time round and I might even get to watch some of it this year albeit on TV as restrictions are in place still in Ireland for attending sporting events. We have had very good weather in Ireland the past 3 weeks so you can expect the first ever Jack Nicklaus design in Ireland to be in immaculate condition this week as Mt.Juliet hosts for the first time since the WGC came here back in 2004. The forecast is also good for the remainder of this week, so with generous fairways to be hit, we can expect a birdie-fest. This is a parkland course so it means a break from the links on offer that most would associate with Irish Opens and its a course that Rory McIlroy should gobble up in pretty much the same way he did at the K Club when winning this title 5 years ago.
It's a decent field too this week, just two weeks out from the long awaited Open, where it's defending champion, Shane Lowry will look for a solid week ahead of his defense and take the opportunity to catch up with family & friends. I fully expect Shano to contend well here this week and he & Rory are deserving market leaders.
The 11/2 about Rory McIlroy may not be everyone's cup of tea and it's certainly a price I would normally pass on, but Mt Juliet is just a course I think sets up perfectly for him and if should the Ulsterman start well, I can see him pressing the pedal in search of a 2nd Irish Open title. To be brutally honest, if he does start well, I cannot see much in the way of a challenge and therefore is a win only bet for me this week.
Of the challengers and those of value, I had shortlisted Shano along with Ryan Fox, Justin Harding, Adri Arnaus,Jason Scrivener, Masahiro Kawamura, Calum Hill and Wilco Nienaber, Christian Bezuidenhout,Thorbjorn Olesen and Mike Lorenzo-Vera. Despite Rory,Shane & Padraig winning the Irish Open in "recent" times, the home players haven't really fared well at their National Open so I'm happy to leave recent tour winner and in-from Jonathan Caldwell out. Olesen was of interest given he has decent form on Irish soil and I can't pass up on him @ 60/1 - 10 places. Form hasn't been great recently but the price probably allows for that.
I have backed Justin Harding a couple of times recently and despite posting 6 TOP-20s from his 14 starts in 2021 as per table below, he can be backed @ 50/1 - 10 places. Aussie, Scrivener I have tried to catch once or twice before and yet to capitalise, but he could take to Mt.Juliet and as highlighted by datagolf.com, Jason is trending perfectly ahead of the event and same can be said with a number on my shortlist as showing up on the trend list...e.g. Fox, Hill, & Kawamura. I'm backing the Aussie to challenge in the Marble County @ 45/1 - 8 places.
Selections
1 pt e/w T. Olesen @ 60/1 - 10 places
1 pt e/w J. Scrivener @ 45/1 - 8 places
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