I say it every year, I love Riviera GC and the tournament. The cream usually rises to the top, although we have had shock winners in recent times but essentially if you are not in form coming into this week you will not contend. And on that, despite Tony Finau on my final 10-man shortlist I can't pull the trigger even at the price...he does like it here but he also likes Torrey Pines and his game was all at sea a few weeks ago there.
It'll be a great tournament, and it'll be hard to beat Phoenix but this is a true test and course form usually is worth a shot or two and so therefore first on the staking plan is my old reliable here, Dustin Johnson @ 17/1 (Betfair Exchange as I'll go win only). I'd probably take the 16s in fairness but I want to get a few more on the plan as well. DJ has solid form here and knows how to play Riviera often citing it is his favourite course to play where his par-5 scoring is worth taking notice of. Yes, Cantlay is the form player and it's hard to argue that he shouldn't be favourite where he too boasts course form, he deserves to be favourite for sure, but is he fighting disappointment having missed that putt last week to win in normal time? He's 2 to 3 points lower in the betting than DJ purely on current form and I'm not sure thats correct. DJ has played here every year and in his last 13 years he has won (2017) and posted a further 9 TOP-10s! He's the one to beat this week in my book.
Alex Noren gave us a great run last week and only if that iron shot to the 15th was struck a bit better he could've won. I'm keen to back him again here where his fade will suit as depicted in his results at Riviera having posted two TOP-20s in his 3 visits, finishing 12th here last year. He should be brimming with confidence following a good week last week and Alex has shown many times that once he hits form he tends to stay in form for a spell. 66/1 - 8 places has a bit of value for me (I made him 50s)
Russell Henley could go well this week on back of decent form already in 2022 where he should have posted a win at the Sony Open. Nothing really to boast at Riviera to date other than a T-17th two years ago but the course really should be to his liking and having the experience and recent form in the bag, he's worth a chance @ 60/1 - 8 places.
33/1 - 8 places about Sam Burns is fair. He's certainly risen the ranks on tour and can compete against the big boys any given week. He has Riviera form too having finished 3rd twelve months ago following 23rd the previous year. He arrives having a win already this season and from his 8 starts can boast 6 T-20s of which 3 are TOP-5s.
Lastly, I'm adding two South Africans in Erik Van Rooyen & Branden Grace @ 90/1 & 200/1 both 8 places respectively. The grass here is their cup a tea, and both are not exactly out of form are they? Grace was 7th at the ZOZO and posted a TOP-50 at Phoenix. He was 20th here last year and can go better. Well worth an interest! I'm hoping Erik can follow up on 20 & 25th places in Hawaii when last seen and put in a good week despite only one visit to Riviera so far where he duly missed the cut by 2 in 2020. Price is fair and is included ahead of Cameron Tringale & Max Homa who are just too short now.
Selections
3 pts WIN D. Johnson @ 17/1
1 pt e/w S. Burns @ 33/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w R. Henley @ 60/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w A. Noren @ 66/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w E. Van Rooyen @ 90/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w B. Grace @ 200/1 - 8 places
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