We have been spoilt the past two weeks on the PGA Tour which makes up for lack of DP Tour & LPGA golf, where TPC Scottsdale & Riviera proved to be challenging courses for elite fields. We have another tough course this week in Palm Beach but we are lacking the elite players as the Florida Swing gets underway. Sungjae Im is just about the right favourite for the event ahead of last week's very impressive winner, Joaquin Niemann.
A strong ball striker with excellent SG:T2G stats will prevail here this week as well as those with excellent scrambling skills as we face smallish greens at PGA National. The stimp won't be as quick as Riviera and the grass type will be welcomed by many in this field following "strange grass in California". The tournament has thrown up some long odds winners down the years (80/1 Matt Jones last year and 250/1 Keith Mitchell in 2019 plus many others). From the head of the market this week, I do indeed like the chances of Sungjae Im as he won here back in 2020 and this season alone he's won (Shriners) and posted another 5 T-20s from his 9 starts to date. At 14/1 though I'll pass and seek some more value further down.
It proved to be an alright strategy last year in keeping the faith with players on the staking plan and to that end I'll stick with Alex Noren here again this week on the back of last week's comment that he tends to hold form for a spell and although he faded down the leaderboard last week, I'll go again in the hope that PGA National will be a better suited course for the Swede although Riviera is too. But the field is not as strong here and Riviera is not really a catch up course to go birdie hunting on once Joaquin had sailed off into the sunset so he can reset here and go again.Noren has form here having finished 3rd in 2018 just a stroke behind eventual winner, Justin Thomas and Luke List. At 33/1 - 8 places I'm happy to stick with him again this week.
Lee Westwood I thought I wouldn't be backing again but there's no denying he can still compete in these tournaments and I though his price was very interesting this week @ 66/1 - 8 places (60s -10 places with Boyles) The Englishman missed the cut last year but was 4th in 2020 and posted 3 TOP10s between 2010 & 2015 in the 6 visits. 20th in Abu Dhabi was followed up with a lowly 32nd in Dubai last month but he'll be at ease in Florida and the price is certainly of some value.
I'm admitting that I'm just chancing Martin Kaymer to find form here. The new dad, could be more relaxed and is a player that excels on tough courses and he'll need to bring his tee to green game here to contend. There's no other reason to back him here as there is no recent form of late, and he will be rusty for sure and has little to boast about when playing here in the past, but he's added to the staking plan given that he could produce any given week and the 80/1 - 8 places is just about fair.
I do however, like to chances of Charl Schwartzel @ 150/1 - 10 places. The South African had been playing well in 2021 (16/23 with 2 TOP-5s posted) but has yet to produce any result of note this season. The 2011 Masters Champion has posted 53-17-16-mc-mc-9-5-14 here in his 8 visits so its a course that he seems quite comfortable on.
Max McGreevy is added to the staking plan again @ 500/1 - 8 places. Max has missed the cut on his last opening four events in 2022 but we can't ignore his two T-20s back at Houston & the RSM either. A first visit to PGA National on the PGA Tour and it's all about a solid opening round for me if he's to hang in there and give me a run for my money.
Selections
1.75 pts e/w A. Noren @ 33/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w L. Westwood @ 66/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w M. Kaymer @ 80/1 - 8 places
0.50 pts e/w C.Schwartzel @ 150/1 - 10 places
0.50 pts e/w M. McGreevy @ 500/1 - 8 places
No comments:
Post a Comment