Shriners Children's Open 2024 - TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas

 Change in tactics !! as per introduction for the Andalucia Masters preview,  I am not taking players into consideration that simply don't win at odds lower than 50 -60s! I'm simply not getting enough placings in the bank and last week's Open de France summed it up for me. That said I was amazed that I actually had three players on my staking plan that Ben Coley also tipped up (at better odds too I might add) yet his last pick, Dan Bradbury went in @ 160/1 - Boy could I have done with that! 

As I write this post I have noted that prices I looked at last night have come in and low and behold, Mr. Coley has 3 players again this week that were on last night's shortlist but rather than just going in and following Ben, I have to consider the prices now and have therefore dropped Eric Cole (I don't see any value in less than 50s), Cam Davis ( I'd want 60s+ lads!) and Chad Ramey (I had him 125s) . This is isn't the first time I've been keen on some players only to see their prices slashed due to Ben's preview and whilst frustrating, and I can't knock him, it does make it tougher to get the "value" come Tuesday or Wednesday. However, I'll take some positives (I need to) ; I'm zeroing in on the right players, if Ben is putting up players that are indeed on my final shortlist, I must be doing something right...just need to get some returns now)

I like TPC Summerlin and this event ! I'm +44.73 pts for the event having only played it since 2020 (4 events) with Sungjae Im doing the business 4 years ago @ 33/1

Adam Hadwin likes it here too and I had him priced at 28/1 - 33/1, so the 40s has to be taken. The Canadian has returned results here of 2-10-6-34-4-27-mc-10 in his 8 visits. Indeed I was him last year (@ 40s) as too was I on Hadley & Dahmen who also placed, so I'm hoping to go one better in the winners enclosure and look for better returns on the podium.

I've reluctantly had to pass on Kizzire, Hadley, Poston, Pendrith,and Tom Hoge (really fancy his chances but not @ 28s) whilst Adam Schenk is a conundrum here , arrives with no form yet has a bunch of course form (4 TOP-20s in his 7 visits and perhaps the  11/2 should be looked at)

Selections

2.5 pts e/w A. Hadwin @ 40/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w G. Sigg @ 110/1 - 8 places
1.5 pts e/w D. Berger @ 50/1 8 places
0.5 pts e/w N. Xiong @ 300/1 - 8 places

Andalucía Masters 2024 - Real Club de Golf Sotogrande

 It's quite remarkable how many tour players simply will never win much in their careers! There are a number of journeymen levels within the DP Tour and it's something I must now need to factor into pricing. Place money 1/4 or 1/5 odds for a player that "doesn't win" needs to account for such players. Jordan Smith is one of the most consistent players on the DPT the past 2 seasons but his returns read differently for the punter; 

Events played this year - 24
WINS : 0
TOP-5s : 3

TOP-10s: 4

TOP-20s: 7

MCs : 6

Total Prize Money : €994,513.44 (will have passed the €1M after Paris paycheck ~€40K)

Ranking : 21st

Events Played in 2023 - 27

WINS: 0

TOP-5s : 2

TOP-10s: 4

TOP-20s: 12

MCs : 5

Total Prize Money : €1.4M

Ranking : 27th

The 34 year old has won twice on the tour, 2017 & 2022 in Germany & Portugal 

What price should he have been and what should he be going forward? The Open de France market was lead by Billy Horschel, the recent winner at Wentworth and an 8-time winner on the PGA tour - he was best priced 12/1, Smith who I backed was 20/1, now in hindsight not such a clever bet. Irrespective of field, Jordan Smith is not a bet @ 20s is he? But in my review of this bet, I have noted that the astute, Ben Coley also backed him @ 25/1 citing his strong T2G game especially at Le Golf National. Indeed I had noted his form figures; 2-7-54-21-30 but his recent form of 1 x T-10 and 3 x T-20s in his last 5 events is what made me pull the trigger....he needs to be minimum 50s in a field like this going forward.....that said there are many players that continuously produce TOP-20s, it's finding those @ triple figures that I need to look at with a 1 pt e/w @ 100/1 placing being a much better prospect knowing the win element is all but forlorn. 

The remaining events will see stronger fields ; Mr. Smith won't be winning but I'll be watching the price to see if they double (I still won't be on). With Smith finishing T13th he again has produced a solid journeyman paycheck for himself but of no use to a punter looking for a player to outplay his odds. But is value in a golf market really there ? The young lads over the pond are much better value than the current stock on the DP Tour. Do we just back Nicolai Hojgaard every time hes 20/1 +  in a "normal field"? Indeed, is Matteo Mannasero a player to be onside @ 33s given he's really back in form of late ? Both winners; if they start well they surely contend for the reminder of the week ? Johannes Veerman looks to be one of those players that likes to get "into the zone" as his up & down to make the cut last week was followed up by 63-67 to finish T-8th shows. He was ranked 2nd T2G last week too so the 55s for 8 places this week does interest me (it's not triple figures but its value for me as I had him @ 40s)- yes he missed the cut here 12 months ago but he's returning to form; 8 T-20s this year on the tour from 24 starts has seen 6 of those end up inside the TOP-10 and I really like his chances this week. 

Selections

2 pts e/w N. Højgaard @ 50/1 - 8 places

2 pt e/w M. Mannasero @ 33/1 - 8 places

1.5 pts e/w J. Veerman @ 55/1 - 8 places

Black Desert Championship 2024 - Black Desert Resort, Ivans, Utah

Selections

1.5 pts e/w P. Fshburn @ 30/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w M. McGreevy @ 70/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w J. Bridgeman @ 55/1 - 8 places

Open de France 2024 - Le Golf National, Paris

 I'm trying to salvage the bank as we enter the final couple of months of 2024 across both DPT & PGA tours but it is proving to be a challenge needless to say as the worse year by my records continues. However, Le Golf National does give me some hope this week where course form coupled with some recent form should see a run for my money...I hope!

I managed to finalize an 8-man shortlist from the 129 listed entries I had, noting 126 tee it up. although both Nico Colsaerts & Jeff Winther in my view represent no value here for me, not does Yannik Paul despite his strong course form. 

Player	My Shortlist	BET365 Odds	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds
Jordan Smith	Current Form	23	21	26	19
Thorbjørn Olesen	Multi	26	23	27	21
Yannik Paul	Course	46	41	47	56
Alex Fitzpatrick	Current Form	46	46	59	51
Guido Migliozzi	Multi	51	51	59	41
Adrian Otaegui	Multi	56	51	64	41
Nicolas Colsaerts	2nd LTO	91	91	118	101
Jeff Winther	Course	101	101	118	91

Selections

2.5 pts e/w J. Smith @ 20/1 - 8 places

2.5 pts e/w T. Olesen @ 22/1 - 8 places

1.5 pts e/w G. Migliozzi @ 50/1 - 8 places

1.5 pts e/w A. Otaegui @ 50/1 - 8 places