It's quite remarkable how many tour players simply will never win much in their careers! There are a number of journeymen levels within the DP Tour and it's something I must now need to factor into pricing. Place money 1/4 or 1/5 odds for a player that "doesn't win" needs to account for such players. Jordan Smith is one of the most consistent players on the DPT the past 2 seasons but his returns read differently for the punter;
Events played this year - 24
WINS : 0
TOP-5s : 3
WINS : 0
TOP-5s : 3
TOP-10s: 4
TOP-20s: 7
MCs : 6
Total Prize Money : €994,513.44 (will have passed the €1M after Paris paycheck ~€40K)
Ranking : 21st
Events Played in 2023 - 27
WINS: 0
TOP-5s : 2
TOP-10s: 4
TOP-20s: 12
MCs : 5
Total Prize Money : €1.4M
Ranking : 27th
The 34 year old has won twice on the tour, 2017 & 2022 in Germany & Portugal
What price should he have been and what should he be going forward? The Open de France market was lead by Billy Horschel, the recent winner at Wentworth and an 8-time winner on the PGA tour - he was best priced 12/1, Smith who I backed was 20/1, now in hindsight not such a clever bet. Irrespective of field, Jordan Smith is not a bet @ 20s is he? But in my review of this bet, I have noted that the astute, Ben Coley also backed him @ 25/1 citing his strong T2G game especially at Le Golf National. Indeed I had noted his form figures; 2-7-54-21-30 but his recent form of 1 x T-10 and 3 x T-20s in his last 5 events is what made me pull the trigger....he needs to be minimum 50s in a field like this going forward.....that said there are many players that continuously produce TOP-20s, it's finding those @ triple figures that I need to look at with a 1 pt e/w @ 100/1 placing being a much better prospect knowing the win element is all but forlorn.
The remaining events will see stronger fields ; Mr. Smith won't be winning but I'll be watching the price to see if they double (I still won't be on). With Smith finishing T13th he again has produced a solid journeyman paycheck for himself but of no use to a punter looking for a player to outplay his odds. But is value in a golf market really there ? The young lads over the pond are much better value than the current stock on the DP Tour. Do we just back Nicolai Hojgaard every time hes 20/1 + in a "normal field"? Indeed, is Matteo Mannasero a player to be onside @ 33s given he's really back in form of late ? Both winners; if they start well they surely contend for the reminder of the week ? Johannes Veerman looks to be one of those players that likes to get "into the zone" as his up & down to make the cut last week was followed up by 63-67 to finish T-8th shows. He was ranked 2nd T2G last week too so the 55s for 8 places this week does interest me (it's not triple figures but its value for me as I had him @ 40s)- yes he missed the cut here 12 months ago but he's returning to form; 8 T-20s this year on the tour from 24 starts has seen 6 of those end up inside the TOP-10 and I really like his chances this week.
Selections
2 pts e/w N. Højgaard @ 50/1 - 8 places
2 pt e/w M. Mannasero @ 33/1 - 8 places
1.5 pts e/w J. Veerman @ 55/1 - 8 places
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