Wednesday, 17 May 2023

PGA Championship 2023 - Oak Hill, Rochester

 Just selections this week from my final 21-man shortlist. Not often I've been on most of these but ball strikers and a strong driving game required by the looks of things for Oak Hill GC, which looks to be an awesome course!

PGA Stats 2023
My ShortlistBet365 oddsBest OddsBest ExchangeMy OddsValue (Y/N)Total DrivingSG:T2GSG:APR
Jon Rahm8.599.0410NO623
Scottie Scheffler8.598.8811NO316
Patrick Cantlay19212217YES2843
Xander Schauffele17192117YES8475
Tony Finau23232621YES1731
Viktor Hovland29313426YES41818
Matt Fitzpatrick31344031YES2446142
Collin Morikawa34344031YES3254
Max Homa41415334YES22139
Sungjae Im34363836NO181460
Jason Day26293236NO151216
Sam Burns46515341YES21109168
Tyrrell Hatton36414541NO9611
Tom Kim818112451YES131514
Shane Lowry677610667YES72530
Rickie Fowler61717491NO31167
Gary Woodland81101118101NO122210
Si Woo Kim8181108126NO241925
Tom Hoge201201451151YES42382
Keith Mitchell176176343176NO142148
Brendan Steele301301608451NO112012


Selections:

2 pts e/w P. Cantlay @ 20/1 - 8 places
1.25 pts e/w M. Homa @ 40/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w S. Lowry @ 80/1 - 8 places
.50 pts e/w K. Mitchell @ 175/1 - 8 places
2 pts e/w T. Finau @ 22/1 - 8 places
2 pts e/w X. Schauffele @ 18/1 - 8 places

Wednesday, 10 May 2023

Soudal Open 2023 - Rinkven International GC, Antwerp

 Frustrating weekend in Italy last week when Yannik Paul went into reverse when the course setup changed to suit the bombers. He may very go well here this week but with a putting performance on display the opening two rounds that I saw, he won't be on my stable at the odds available this week.

My ShortlistBET365 OddsBest OddsBest ExchangeMy Odds
Thorbjorn Olesen21212319
Jorge Campillo211919.626
Alexander Bjork17172129
Adrian Otaegui17172126
Ewen Ferguson41414946
Oliver Bekker617610861
Fabrizio Zanotti51516461
Maximilian Kieffer31344356
Masahiro Kawamura61676467
Daniel van Tonder61676867
Jeung Hun Wang81819667
Aaron Cockerill41465967
Alejandro Del Rey126126176101
Sean Crocker126151196151
Alejandro Canizares125151182101
JC Ritchie101111167126

Just the selections from my 15-man shortlist and it would have been more but prices have been slashed since Monday on a couple of them, especially Max Kieffer who I was quite keen on but seriously, 33/1 ?? Adrian Otaegui I can understand as he won the Knockout tournament here and was solid last year too in finishing 15th but I can't justify 16s now. Ferguson has dipped in form of late but I do think he is the sort of player that can simply show up any given week and Rinkven will be suitable (lowly 58th last year though) and @ 40s though he too needs to be passed up. It's not an overly strong field (Detry & Bjork vying for market leader!) so I'm hoping Thorbjorn Olesen's run last week has shaken off the rust as he failed to post a t-20 for the first time this season and he's worth taking @ 20/1 - 8 places

I'll side once again with Jeung Hun Wang this week at the price 70/1 - 8 places and I'll be interested to see how 40yr old Alejandro Canizares goes given he's been in fine form this year posting 3 T-20s from his 6 starts, a best finish 4th at The Australian Open whilst his compatriot, Alejandro Del Rey is still to find the consistency that his game definitely has to convert to results but @ 90/1 - 8 places thought was worth another interest.


Selections

2.5 pt e/w T. Olesen @ 20/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w J.H. Wang @ 70/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w A. Canizares @ 125/1  - 8 places
1 pt e/w A. Del Rey @ 90/1



Wednesday, 3 May 2023

Italian Open 2023 - Marco Simone GC - Rome, Italy

 Very frustrating week in Korea where Jannik Paul looked to be in pole position (he was) after 36 holes before a poor "moving day" Saturday saw him move out of contention yet somehow came back into it briefly on Sunday before capitulating again. Still, the course proved to be a winner and he can take positives away from the first two days performance.

Onto a rescheduled Italian Open this week (from Sept to May) as the Ryder Cup will be hosted by this week's Marco Simone GC outside Rome in September. It means we don't have the strong field that we had here ~8 months ago as the elevated event at Quail Hollow understandably is a bigger incentive for the European leading players this week on the PGA Tour.

It's a short week with Monday gone a Public Holiday that centres around family time so this post is a bit later but the work has been done and a 15-man shortlist was finalized as per below, ending with the subsequent staking plan. Emphasis was put on SG:APR & SG:T2G and I'm very keen to see how Thorbjorn Olesen goes this week whilst Ockie Strydom appears to be the value of the week having won two DPT titles already this year! Yannik Paul gets another chance and I'm revisiting Jason Scrivener and Richard Mansell who should find the course to their liking.

My ShortlistBET365 OddsBest OddsBest ExchangeMy Odds
Nicolai Hojgaard171918.719
Robert MacIntyre21212419
Adrian Meronk19212215
Victor Perez23212626
Thorbjorn Olesen31293426
Yannik Paul34363834
Joost Luiten34364241
Jorge Campillo34364041
Marcus Helligkilde36364046
Adrian Otaegui46466456
Richard Mansell41465341
Romain Langasque51566351
Marcel Siem81101108151
Jason Scrivener91101137201
Ockie Strydom176176230101


Selections

2 pts e/w T. Olesen @ 30/1 - 8 places
2 pts e/w Y. Paul @ 30/1  - 8 places
1.5 pts e/w R. Mansell @ 40/1 - 8 places
0.75 pts e/w J. Scrivener @110/1 - 8 places
0.50 pts e/w O. Strydom @ 175/1 - 8 places