Monday, 24 June 2013

Irish Open 2013 - The Montgomerie, Carton House

We have a very good field assembled this week in Ireland where the local boys all arrive here in mixed form. Rory McIlroy heads the betting in his attempt to win his home Open and regain confidence before the next Major in 3 weeks at Muirfield. As eluded to in my Irish Open preview, Rory will be hoping to win this and kick start his return to form just as winning the Irish Open in 2007 acted as the catalyst for Padraig Harrington. This course will suit Rory and if he can get his short game going he could very well win come Sunday but I'm not that confident at 7/1. GMac let me down at Merion, but he will be happy to be home too  and will be all out to win ,but perhaps the course may not suit. Again he is too short in the betting for me. Padraig Harrington is just bang out of form despite two solid opening rounds in Connecticut last week, and its hard to see him winning here. Thomas Bjorn went very close for us in Munich and arrives back at Carton House having won the last time it was staged here on the back of two second placings. But at 16/1, I think we should look for value further down the field. The Irish Open has produced many a household name winner in Seve, Langer, Montgomerie, Faldo, Campbell, Harrington, Crenshaw, Torrance, Garcia to name just a few but it has also thrown up some outsiders in recent years and its quite possible we could see that again this week.One player towards the top of the market that I did fancy to go well here is Francesco Molinari and he is on my staking plan this week at 33/1 with paying 5 places or 28/1 with Betpack who are paying 6 places. As per normal I advise taking the 6 places.

My second selection this week is Richard Sterne @ 55/1 with SkyBet. Really think this is good value for a player that can turn it on any given week and a player that should be challenging more often. The South African has made a good return to the tour following injury by winning the Joburg Opn back in February. In his 5 starts since that win, he has 3 TOP 20s, so he will come here fresh and confident.Carton should be to his liking where GIR will be the key stat this week . Too good a price to pass up on for me.

Third pick is Peter Uihlein @ 50/1. The American has been in terrific form of late. A win at The Madeira Islands was followed up by a T12 at Wentworth, 21st at the Nordea Masters and a T10th in Munich. He's a big hitter which will serve him well and recent form will be complemented by seeing his compatriot Brooks Koepka win for the 3rd time this season on the Challenge Tour having come from that tour himself.

 I'm adding Victor Dubuisson this week @ 66/1. The 23 year old Frenchman has been playing well this season, so much so I've sided with him a couple of times already. I did tweet after his 9th hole in Munich on Sunday that he had just played the last 4 holes in +7 and wondered if he was worth keping onside for this one. He responded by playing the back 9 in -6, so that shows me his game is ok and he too will relish the driving aspect of The Montgomerie here. He is one to keep an eye on tour and he'll be one of the first I'll seek out when I visit on Thursday.

I'm also adding Matthew Baldwin in to the pot @ 100/1 and Scott Jamieson @ 125/1. The former had a good tourney in Munich despite a closing 74. It was just his first TOP 20 this season and if he can drive it a bit straighter this week he might have a decent week. Small stakes advised though. Jamieson went off a bit following good performances in South Africa earlier this year but signs are that his game is beginning to gel again whilst the results haven't. He's a player simmering to click and at the odds is worth chancing on a course not too dissimilar to what he has grown up with in Scotland and capitalize when he does indeed "click".

My 9 point/unit staking plan for the Irish Open is as per below - Good luck if you do follow

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w F.Molinari @ 28/1 Betpack Paying 6 places

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w R.Sterne @ 55/1 SkyBet. * paying just 5 places

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w P.Uihlein @ 50/1 Bet Victor Paying 6 places

TIP 4: 0.75 pts e/w V.Dubuisson @ 66/1 Betpack Paying 6 places

TIP 5: 0.5 pts e/w M.Baldwin @ 100/1 Bet365 paying 6 places

TIP 6: 0.25 pts e/w S.Jamieson @ 125/1 Betpack Paying 6 places

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