A very good field tees it up at Sea Island Resort in Georgia following a successful Masters last week at Augusta. Two courses as usual for the RSM Classic will be in play this week; The Seaside & The Plantation, with the former to be used for the weekend. making it in play for three of the four rounds. We have 150 players, with former winner, Bill Haas now withdrawn having tested positive for Covid-19.
Whether those that played last week have the focus and strength to comedown from the emotions of The Masters remains to be seen, but things are indeed different this year and the players may just pick up where they left off here and go into the week as per normal. Yes, in the past, the RBC Heritage usually follows the week after, but this year it's later (The Masters) and we have the RSM Classic at Sea Island instead. At the RBC Heritage , the trend showed that those that were playing the weekend at Augusta fared poorly the week after with perhaps one exception when Matt Kuchar finished T-5. It may in some small part be due to the exertions and high emotions in playing both the iconic Major and the course and all that it entails. I'm not quite convinced that this will follow the same trend this week. Schedules for all have been changed throughout 2020 and I genuinely believe a lot of the players are very grateful to be able to continue plying their trade and this seems to be reflected in the quality of the fields each week and in particular here, a week after the Masters to see such a strong one and which was emphasized by OWGR exponent, @Nosferatu on twitter the other day when he revealed that the OWGR SOF for this week is estimated to be 52 pts compared to a best of 42 previously. I also believe the tour is as strong now in quality than ever before and that players realize they do need to compete to their best to make their way...the days of the old "journeyman" making cuts may not change significantly but you need to make more cuts than ever to keep that all important tour card. Whilst you can argue than any player on tour tees it up every week hoping to play his best to win, some do give up and resign themselves to the "there's always next week" mentality when the cut-line looks to be out of reach or indeed the TOP-10 etc. There is certainly a lot of value in the up and coming players this week but the question is just how many do we get onside with?
Do we oppose Webb Simpson, the market leader purely because he's 1. too short or 2. played well at Augusta last week ? Does Webb represent any value at all @ 9/1? Perhaps not or indeed the price might actually be fair based on his course and tournament form not to mention the consistency he has shown the past 18 months or more. Between the McGladrey Classic as previously known and the RSM when they stepped in, there has been 10 editions, with Simpson having teed it up in 8 of them. 12th on debut back in 2010, he has since been beaten twice in playoffs (2011 & 2019), not to mention a 3rd place finish in 2018 with a weekend 63-65 to fall just one shot short. The 2018 run followed his withdrawal after 2 rounds in 2017 when lying 12th so that he could attend to his father who's health had deteriorated before passing away the week after. This tournament is close to Webb Simpson and having gone so close in the past, he would like to win this to mark his father's anniversary. As a punter, I feel he cannot be ignored this week even @ 9/1. I haven't looked at the Joburg Open in too much detail this week but have backed Webb and Garrick Higgo in a double, thinking that was best how to get onside with Webb. But I'm now pulling the trigger on him to win for the blog.
Joacquin Niemann is added to the staking plan firstly on the back of my theme to stick with players who I have tipped and backed previously this year. The Chilean has provided decent returns for the blog already this year and I think he can go well here this week given his iron play is ideal for the shots required to score well. He had a run for 65th here two years ago on his only visit but recent form in the new 2021 shows he's in great nick with 3 TOP-20s from his 4 starts (incl. a T-10 @ The CJ Cup). No debut at Augusta last week but he's surely heading for April invitation and he will be fresh having not played since 17th @ the ZOZO Championship. 35/1 does give us a bit of value in my opinion as I had him 25 - 28/1 for this one.
Former winner, Kevin Kisner surely goes well again this week at a decent 40/1 ? Winner in 2015, Kis also finished 4th in 2014 & 2017 to complement a 7th (2018) and 20th (2013). Missing the cut last week is nothing of concern....he'll be better suited for Sea Island.
Chris Kirk and Talor Gooch complete my staking plan here at loner odds. The former has been backed by this blog already this year and along with Niemann, he is kept onside here as form this year is encouraging and he returns to a track that he too has won before(2013). Kirk went to college in Georgia and has a strong affinity in this area having been raised near Atlanta. As written in previous post, Kirk is recovering from personal issues and returned to the Korn Ferry Tour this year where he took out the King & Bear Classic in Florida with a -26 winning score. Since that unexpectant victory, Kirk has played consistently without really threatening leaderboards but the hope this week that for a "home game" he can raise his game a bit more @ 150/1! Gooch is borderline priced for me @ 55/1 with 8 places having priced him @ 50s. I wanted to leave him out for Zach Johnson instead but am drawn to his chances here this week. He may only be 1/3 visits here (23rd last year) but his recent form is eye catching with returns of 4-35-5 in his last 3 starts and he may be ready to continue this form having had the week off last week following the strong 4th placing at a tough Houston Open.
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