Monday 9 November 2020

The Masters 2020 - November @ Augusta National

 We usually grow impatient around the end of January, early February counting down the weeks and tournaments to the first Major of the year, but for The Masters 2020, we've had to wait forever it seems! Augusta National should look completely different this week to what we are used to seeing unless the groundsmen have imported bucket loads of azaleas and produced some magnolias on the drive up to the clubhouse! Indeed we wont have any spectators, sorry, patrons to roar the players on making Augusta National a very cold and strange arena for the players this week. Not only will spectators be missing but the players will have limited backroom team members available to them for the week at the course; just player and caddy and their coach plus one other can attend. It will be a Masters like no other...except we do expect the likely contenders to be on top of the leaderboard come Sunday. 

Augusta is long any time of the year but it should play very long this week in the midst of autumn and will, as always, favour the big hitters. That of course lends weight to the Bryson DeChambeau show and his chances to go back to back in Majors. He heads the market but I'm not sure he should. Augusta though has proven over the years though that its not just being big off the tee; a good approach game is a definite prerequisite to donning the green jacket as is the nuance to putt well on these slick, super fast greens. Whether the greens run as fast this week as they normally would in April remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be surprised if the course is ready to go and presented as close to what it can be should it have been an April date. 

For me, Dustin Johnson showed in Texas last week on his first appearance following recovery from COVID-19 that his game is there and in great nick and he holds the form he showed in the FedEX Cup playoff series. DJ has the power too for Augusta and he managed to eagle three holes in his 3rd round here back in 2015. As Justin Ray of the 15th Club has pointed out, DJ is a combined -29 for his past 5 appearances here with only a 2020 out of form, Jordan Spieth scoring better. The more I look at the field the more open it appears but it certainly looks like the winner will emerge from the leading contenders and of those DJ & Rory McIlroy interest me the most. As a big Justin Thomas fan, I'm reeling that I can't get onside with him as well, but having considered the potential winner from the three as well as Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau , its the World Number One & the Grand Slam-chasing McIlroy who I think are the best options. DJ has served his time and has been unlucky in some Majors, but he'll arrive this week in as good a nick as he has ever been for The Masters and if he keeps his putter hot he'll be the man to beat.

Rory McIlroy has had a "poor-ish" season by his own standards, but the Major winning Irishman didn't win an awful lot of tournaments back in 2011 when he started his Major haul, much like Brooks Koepka, saving his best for the big ones. Recent fatherhood may explain some dip in form throughout this year and with COVID-19 very dominant also, the season's results will not have bothered him as much as he prepares for the one and only goal he set from the outset and that was to complete the Major Grand Slam and become just the 5th golf in history to achieve the feat. Rory's tee to green game, his controlled draw off the tee and his sharp approach play are all ideal for Augusta and if he eliminates the mistakes he can focus on the mission at hand and enter the history books....

I've been backing Shane Lowry (100.00 - 120.00) and Bubba Watson (55.00 - 80.00)  for a couple of months now so I've got plenty of value onside already but as the week looms, Bubba @ >30/1 is still worth considering. (I had written Shano's chances off until he played well at Houston but he needs to control that driver if he's to produce a decent Augusta result).Gunning for his 3rd jacket here, Bubba brings recent form into the week on a course he simply loves. 4th last time out at the ZOZO Championship and 7th the week before at the CJ Cup, Bubba is in great form and his approach play is very strong of late...he simply loves Augusta where his results prove such ; 12th last year and 5th the year before having won in 2014 & 2012.

 Jason Day could be a factor but its very difficult to back this guy not knowing whether he will suffer from man-flu or something else and withdraw on you. Rickie Fowler has been too quiet this season to really consider but could give you a run for your money in the TOP-10/20 markets @ 6/1 & 2/1 respectively. Justin Rose is a player I've backed a few times here just like I did with Lee Westwood and whilst both have contended very well, it's hard to see either of them winning it now but there is some value in their prices with 8 to 10 places abegging with most bookies this week @ 67.00 & 111.00.

Adam Scott won at Riviera earlier this season and for me could very well be the dark horse...if you consider a former Masters Champion a dark horse. Another, like DJ & Tony Finau and unfortunately, Sergio Garcia, who will miss the tournament this week,  tesed positive for COVID-19 last month before returning last week in Houston.  However, 40/1 although fair isn't enough for a bet although some 45s are still available.


Selections

3 pts e/w D. Johnson @ 10/1 - 10 places
2 pts e/w R. McIlroy @ 14/1 - 9 places
1.5 pts e/w B. Watson @ 30/1 - 8 places
0.50 pts e/w J. Rose @ 66/1 - 8 places
0.25 pts e/w L. Westwood @ 110/1 - 8 places

  

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