It will be tough to follow the PGA Championship this week but the DP Tour will offer us a birdie-fest in The Netherlands, whilst the PGA Tour will offer a similar test at Colonial GC as to what as was experienced at Southern Hills although not as intensive. How much drain there will be on the travelling players from Tulsa to Tilburg remains to be seen but we do have 7 players making that trip of which 6 make up the head of the betting market where they are priced between 18 - 40/1. Fair enough, they are the better players but only 3 of them played all 4 rounds last week where Bernd Wiesberger fared the best, placing 30th. Thomas Pieters will probably be at his home for the week and make the 90 minute commute to Bernardus GC each day and he cannot be dismissed lightly @ 22/1. However, he may have his eyes on bigger upcoming tournaments and may not approach this week with too much ambition. I'm happy to swerve him here given I have 4 players from my shortlist that I think are quite decent value
Marcus Armitage is simmering of late and he could be motivated to play well this week ahead of his defence of The European Open next week in Germany. From his 10 starts this season the Englishman has posted 5 TOP-20s of which 2 were TOP-10s and I like his price, 66/1 - 7 places especially as Marcus ranks high in the SG:APR AND SG:T2G (7th & 16th). Bernardus GC lends itself to strong approach play and forgiveness off the tee, so if he brings a putting week here he is a solid chance for me. It is his putting that drags him back but he should be in a good frame of mind for the next couple of weeks.
I had Edoardo Molinari towards the top of my shortlist with a tissue price 55-60/1. The best price 45/1 is a no-no for me unfortunately and so I'll turn my attention back to Victor Perez @ 50/1 - 7 places. One TOP-10 from his 6 starts this season came 4 starts ago at the Handa Championship and his last couple of events yielded results of 33-21 so he's not too far off of producing a good week. He's certainly underachieving a little to date but has the game for this level and given the market leaders could be tired or demotivated following exploits at the PGA Championship, this could be an ideal week to strike
JC Ritchie is added to the staking plan based on price @ 75/1 - 8 places as well as Ashun Wu @ 80/1 - 8 places. Both players have solid SG:APR & SG:T2G stats to back their chances for this course with the latter ranking high for putting as well. I made them both 55 - 67/1 chances so some value for me in those prices on offer. The Chinese player won the Kenya Open earlier this year whilst the South African has been in fantastic form on the co-sanctioned Sunshine/Challenge Tour winning twice in his homeland before grabbing a T-10 at The Belfry three weeks ago. As always I feel, the transfer from the South African tour to other tours doesn't always go well but given solid form the past 6 months he is worth a dabble.
Selections
1.50 pts e/w M. Armitage @ 66/1 - 7 places1.00 pts e/w V.Perez @ 50/1 - 7 places
1.00 pts e/w JC Ritchie @ 75/1 - 8 places
1.00 pts e/w A. Wu @ 80/1 - 8 places
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