Will they bolt up ? On paper it looks very likely, especially as Rory looks way ahead of the field that offers its next best in the shape of Tyrell Hatton !In Rory's last 8 Dubai Desert Classics dating back to 2009, he is yet to fail to not finish T-10, with two wins in the books in 2015 & 2009. He arrives fresh, but most players are despite the Hero Cup & Abu Dhabi outings and he's definitely a deserved short priced favourite to put down the gauntlet to Jon Rahm in the World rankings!
Having attended this event in 2019 it remains one of my favourites and with such a strong field assembled it has garnered more of my attention that The American Express last week which along with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to be played next week will be axed from any future betting. They have proven to be money losers for me , I dont enjoy them, and can leave them alone going forward. The Emirates GC & Torrey Pines GC produce better events and this should be a great week whether Rory wins or not. There are a couple of players in each event that caught my eye and I hope they can outplay their odds and take a top-8 if not sneak the "W".
Jason Scrivener is a player I've been interested in a few times and I do think Emirates GC is a suitable course for the Perth native. Just one win in his professional career to date coming at the NSW Open 5 years ago needs to be factored in for sure, but there are signs of some consistency developing and being only 33yrs old he should be settling in nicely at this stage and put a decent season together. He has two T-10s here in 2019 & 2018 and arrives here very much in form having posted 3 T-20s in his 3 season starts so far with a run of 7-18-2 (the runner up being in his native Australia at the AUS PGA) 7th last week in Abu Dhabi was a solid result and he can go well here @ 75/1 - 8 places
Sepp Straka returns to "Europe" having had a solid 2022 on the PGA Tour and he's simply overpriced this week @ 80/1 - 8 places. Winner of the Honda Classic last year on the PGA Tour and runner up at the FedEx St Jude as well as the Sanderson Farms Championship in the autumn, Straka is definetely coming down a grade here this week and will look to serve notice to Luke Donald. His ball striking will be ideal for The Emirates and I expect a solid showing more so having missed the cut last week at Yas Las. That was links, this is "desert" although becoming more parkland as the years go by. The Austrian has the toolkit for the job at hand here.
Wrapping up my staking plan this week with Ewen Ferguson again @ 150/1 - 8 places. He didn't get in to it at all last week but at the price is worth chancing again. Romain Langasque is a player who can be hot & cold but @ 100/1 - 8 places he too cannot be dismissed lightly where he has posted 18-mc-27-20 in his 4 previous visits.
Hurly Long, Yannik Paul, Marcel Schneider & Thorbjorn Olesen were seriously considered as too were Kalle Samooja (12-4-27-16 results here the past 4 years) whilst Min Woo Lee & Adrian Meronk were priced accordingly and so I'll stick with the staking plan below and move onto to the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines starting Wednesday
Selections
1 pt e/w J. Scrivener @ 75/1 - 8 places
2 pts e/w S. Strake @ 80/1 - 8 places
.5 pts e/w E. Ferguson @ 150/1 - 8 places
.75 pts e/w R. Langasque @ 100/1 - 8 places
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