US Masters 2018

Once again the first Major of the year falls upon us with great anticipation, made the more exciting by all the main contenders hitting form at the right time. Four-time winner, Tiger Woods arrives in good nick and the markets have shown a lot of support for the 14 time Major winner. Rory McIlroy arrives having won at Bay Hill, whilst twice-winner Bubba Watson tees it up having won at Riviera and Mexico recently. Throw in Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson,Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson and Paul Casey, all winners on the PGA Tour this year and you have yourself an intriguing Masters. That's the PGA Tour winner's list ! Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren have been challenging on US soil of late too and who's to say the green jacket wont go to a European player for the third year in a row? Can Sergio Garcia go back to back ? Having just become a proud father last month, the defending champion will tee it up under less pressure than he would have done any year previously having shaken the "best golfer never to have won a major" tag last April. Jordan Spieth of course is another who has course form and seems to excel here, and his maturity and course management is critical for Augusta National and cannot be discounted. The man who makes the fewest mistakes should be up there.

I've gone about making my selections in pretty much the same way I've done every year. In 2016, I wrote 5 posts in making the shortlists and with just 87 players starting this year, we can sub-consciously do the same here to whittle the field down to the final 30 in as much as time as it takes to stroke the pen through 50 odd names. I apologize here for a brief preview this year as I'm currently on holiday with my family and very pressed for time. ( a look back at my previews for 2016 & 2017 though may help understand my reasoning for my final selections)

Finding value this week really comes down to who you perceive has the best chance of winning outright or a higher priced player that could sneak a place as most bookies are offering 8 places and indeed some are offering 10 places. If you are a weekly golf better I suggest sticking to the better prices but if betting purely to have "an interest" this week, you may prefer to take the additional places.

It's a week though that I want to sit back and watch the golf and enjoy it. I recall watching Jack outgun Seve , Tom Kite and Greg Norman on the back nine on the Sunday in 1986, Nick Faldo overhaul a 6 shot deficit to beat Norman in '96 and as recently as Danny Willetts surprise win in 2016 when Spieth unfolded at the 12th to open the door to two Englishmen to battle it out over the final 4 holes. Twleve months ago I watched my man Rose lose to Sergio in a play-off, but really knew the writing was on the wall at the 13th when Sergio somehow made par! Sergio and his wife have named their daughter Azalea too (name of the 13th hole hole at Augusta)

But I'll have an interest though !

Bubba was tempting, but he's not only too short now but I also think the pressure will be too much if the leaderboard does unfold with all the names mentioned above come Sunday. I had wanted to see a bit more form Adam Scott in the lead-up but despite showing signs of late he's left out despite the price. Charl Schwartzel was another I was keeping an eye on and again despite the price I can't get too involved. Instead my selections are predictable as I once again back Justin Rose to prevail here. His form the past three years has been outstanding as it has been on every visit to Augusta. He's in form and is one player on tour that really should be adding to his sole Major win to date. The 2013 US Open Champion and 2016 Olympic Champion, is a big time winner, can handle the pressure and is in fine form as he tees it up in the last grouping on Thursday alongside Dustin Johnson and Rafael Cabrera-Bello. He should be shorter than 17.00 (I made him 13.00) With Sergio winning last year, a trend has developed where the last 8 winners of the green jacket have all teed off in Round-1 in the afternoon and of those, five have done so after 13:00. Rose tees off at 14:00!

Paul Casey finally ended his PGA winless streak with victory at Copperhead last month to edge out Tiger and with his course form also very strong here I expect the confidence from that win to feed into a bold showing here yet again. As with some trends of Masters winners, Casey is a winner already this season and can improve on his last three results at the Masters of 6-4-6. He's available @ 23.00 (8 places).

Russell Henley is added to my Masters staking plan yet again and the Georgia native is real value @ 151.00 (edit: 125.00 at time of posting). He warmed up nicely with a fast finishing T-10 last week in Houston and if he can settle in quickly on Thursday, then the 3-time PGA Tour winner can improve yet again on his recent Augusta results of 11-21-31-mc. He has an afternoon tee time with Shubhankhar Sharma and Larry Mize.

Patton Kizzire makes his debut at The Masters and despite not seeing a debutante winner since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, that feat surely can be repeated some day. However, given the leading contenders are all in such good form I'll consider Patton for the TOP Debutante market @ 9.00 instead. He's 9/12 this season including 2 wins at the OHL Classic and Sony Opens (a further 2 TOP-10s and 4 TOP-20s) He faces Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Shubhankar Sharma and Dylan Fittelli to name just a handful in this market and I like the fact that he plays alongside Casey & Matsuyama in the opening 2 rounds. He could surprise again this week!

Selections

2.00 pts e/w J. Rose @ 17.00
1.50 pts e/w P. Casey @ 23.00
0.50 pts e/w R. Henley @ 126.00
2.00 pts TOP Debutante P. Kizzire @ 9.00