China Open 2018 - Topwin GC, Beijing, China

The Great Wall of China provides the backdrop for the third successive year as Topwin GC just outside Beijing hosts the tri-sanctioned Volvo China Open this week. Last week's winner Alex Levy defends this week and goes in search of his third title here having won in 2014 also.

Levy's win in Morocco was his fifth Europeantour title and brings the Frenchman new hope that he can kick on and make the Ryder Cup team in September to be played in his homeland. He'll see this week as an opportunity to gain more points as Topwin GC has proven to be his liking if not China itself, having posted a TOP-5 in Shenzhen and TOP-10/20s at Sheshan (HSBC Champions) and Genzon (Shenzhen International) over the past 4 years on his visits to this country. He deservedly leads the market and makes my 14-man shortlist. So too does local favourite and winner here two years ago, Haotong Li who won earlier this year in Dubai and Bernd Wiesberger who won the Shenzhen International last year before finishing 4th to Levy here the week after. Haotong is too short for me here and is easily passed over on price.

The Austrian returned to Sheshan for the HSBC last October to post yet another TOP-10. He obviously likes this part of the world so the 24.00 available is very tempting. He makes his first start since Augusta (T-24th) so arrives a little too fresh and on that basis I've left him out. He's won only 4 times on tour and there is no value in other markets to get onside with him this week.

Alexander Bjork is knocking loudly on the winners door of late and is surely going to end the wait soon and was very tempting this week. He was a model of consistency throughout 2017 and is beginning to churn out consistent results again of late but I've been put off his stats this week. I'd rather hone in on a player in solid recent form with course form somewhere in the locker but the Swede missed the cut here last year. He has posted 5 TOP-20s from his 10 starts this season and @ 3.00 to produce another here, he's well worth considering. His stats don't lend weight to the belief that big hitting will be the key this week and he's reluctantly left out despite being available now @ 50.00 on the exchange.

Jorge Campillo of Spain has recent form to consider for this week as he finds himself inside the TOP100 in the OWGR rankings. Nine starts this season have yielded 3 TOP-10s and a further 2 TOP-20s. He was TOP10 here twelve months ago and can boast Asian form , most notably going so close to a win only to be being reeled in by a flying Shubhankar Sharma in Malaysia in February. I'm not sure whether there is much value in the 46.00 price but he could be an interesting in-play option.

Erik Van Rooyen @ 50.00 though is a play for me here, again on the back of solid recent form. The South African has the tools to conquer Topwin GC. His price represents value and the price could be so on the basis that he sees Topwin for the first time. His season stats are encouraging in that he's a big hitter and is gaining strokes on his fields both off the tee and in the tee to green categories. He rates highly for GIR and arrives on the back of a 7th place finish at Dar Es Salem, 21st finish in Madrid, MC at India (easily dismissed)  and yet another TOP-10 at the Tshwane Open in his homeland. 8 starts have yielded 3 TOP-10s and a further TOP-20 and he could be the next best thing to come out of South Africa. For an e/w play he still gives some value @ 41.00 (6 places)

Ryan Fox and Scott Hend are on my shortlist on the basis that the lads from down under can wallop their way round this course and despite the Aussie having solid Asian form over the years, it's the Kiwi that I would be more keener on of the two. The Aucklander has 2 TOP-20s from his 6 starts of which one was a TOP-10 posted in Asia at the Malaysia Championship. He was available at 70.00 yesterday, but has come in now to 67.00 which sounds about right but is an in-play option also.

Another Aussie, Lucas Herbert missed the cut on his last two starts in Queenstown, NZ, and in Oman. He was in fine form before that though, when posting 5 TOP-10s in 6 starts in Australia and Asia. The big hitter could find form here again this week despite his first look at the course and make the 151.00 look a gift come the weekend.

Instead I'll add Zimbabwean, Scott Vincent to my staking plan @ 110.00 on the exchange. TOP-5 last week at The Panasonic Open in Japan will bring some confidence to the 25 year old. Very much a traveller playing all round the world, Vincent can take confidence from solid showings in Indonesia, Taiwan and Korea as well as the 4 TOP-10s he posted on the Asiantour in 2017 to secure his card for 2018. He's worth a go in the TOP-10 market here also @ 8.00

Englishmen, Callum Shinkwin and Matt Wallace could have good weeks here too.They have the firepower to score here and the latter will have his sights on breaking into the TOP-100 on the OWGR but I've listed them here more for draftkings purposes than a bet.

My last play is a very speculative punt on Scotsman, Bradley Neil having an upturn in fortunes to post a TOP-20 here @ 17.00. In just his first full season on the European Tour, Neil is still trying to find his feet but he has been doing ok in making 5/10 cuts to sit just outside the TOP-200 in the R2D. The speculative punt is made in the hope that the wider fairways here will suit.


Staking Plan

1.00 pts E/W Erik Van Rooyen @ 41.00
0.50 pts WIN Scott Vincent @ 110.00
2.50 pts TOP10 S. Vincent @ 8.00
1.00 pts TOP20 B.Neil @ 17.00