The second of the Major of the year is upon us this week as we head back to Winged Foot GC for the first time since 2006, where Australian Geoff Ogilvy prevailed by becoming the first player ever and still to this day, win a Major without breaking par in any round. His winning score of 285 (+5) was the highest winning score in a Major and we can expect high scoring this time too! Since 1970, Winged Foot has yielded the highest scoring average of 74.45 and we play it this time round in the 3rd week in September when climate conditions shouldn't be as severe as when normally played for in June. That said the weather forecast is very good for the week ahead and we should see slick greens in play.It's the greens that will add to a players score this week even if he avoiding the penal rough.
I enjoy these type of Majors, and having really enjoyed Olympia Fields in Illinois last month where Jon Rahm saw off Dustin Johnson to win the BMW Championship, I fully expect to see the players who have been in form the past 6 weeks or so to be on the leaderboard again this week. Whilst US Open winners of late have been top drawer though, we have seen many triple figure priced players hitting the podium. I backed Shane Lowry during the Northern Trust, before he duly missed the cut and he did little to restore my confidence last week when missing the cut at The Safeway Open, but he's backed and he still remains one to consider as an outsider for the week. The Open Champion has some US Open form, notably pushing Dustin Johnson in 2016 at Oakmont having posted a TOP-10 the previous year at Chambers Bay. He was 28th last year at Pebble Beach. Lowry likes the big events, the big story. He won his National Open as an amateur in 2009, has won a Major and a WGC (Bridgestone 2015) and he's clearly pushing to make Padraig Harrington's Ryder Cup Team for next year. Aside from the Irish Open win in 2009, the Portugal Masters is only other win on his résumé, but his short game has got him to these titles and he'll need it here this week too...if he gets the big stick to behave this week, he has a fair shout. 100/1 - 7 places available
Martin Kaymer is still searching for his first win anywhere since his romp to the US Open at Pinehurst in 2014 and he really should have won on both his last two starts.Whether its the scar tissue from Abu Dhabi 2015 when losing a 10-shot lead that still haunts him or not, the affable German is knocking on the door a long time now for one more win....and he is not without a chance this week if the head is good. It always is though as his demeanour on course is exactly what top players need and have. He has been superb tee to green this season as are his returns on the Europeantour this season (8-16-13-10-mc-mc -3-2) He won't be fazed by the occasion, arrives in very good form and is a big-time player. Whilst his chipping is a concern, a solid start on Thursday can focus the job at hand and it is imperative he does start well. I wanted to hold off with the write-up until the tee times were announced but will hope he has a morning start and take the 110/1 - 8 places on offer.
I do however think Webb Simpson can win his second US Open this week. From his 9 US Opens to date, he has only missed one cut, winning in 2012 and posting a further 3 TOP-20s. Twice winner on tour this year ;Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage, Simpson since the last win has posted 3 TOP10s and 2 TOP-20s from his 7 outings; he's in form! If its a steady player, a patient player that we want on our staking plan this week with a little bit of value @ 25/1 - 28/1, he's one for the shortlist. At 22/1 with 10 & 11 places on offer , punters will bring a lot of action.
I considered Patrick Reed, Tyrell Hatton, Adam Scott and Joaquin Niemann as well as Finau & Rahm. I so wanted to get on board with JT this week but his game is not where he'd like it to be, but I wouldn't completely write him off. His results have been decent with a win thrown in for good measure but he'll need his A-game this week. Rory has the long game and skills to contend and he was tempting @ 18/1, but as alluded last time out- he hasn't posted a TOP-10 since the golf restart....perhaps his mind was quite rightly elsewhere. He has one eye on Augusta, so we'll see him sharpen up over the next month and it could easily happen here.
There's no doubting that Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson are the two form players coming into the week but I'm not quite convinced that "Rahmbo" is only one point bigger than DJ in the betting. Yes Rahm is starting to show a winning consistency and a penchant for the difficult tracks, but he looks for his first Major this week where his patience will be tested again and again. DJ for me @ 10.00 looks value in respect to his competitors prices....I had priced him at 15/2, with Rahm @ 10/1. DJ has only the one Major in his locker, (so too has many other great players over the years...it's not easy winning these, despite what Brooks thinks) but of all the Major's, it's the US Open that seems to be DJ's best Major to compete in. He's won one from his 12 attempts to date and posted further 3 TOP-5s! His all round game is on fire at present and for me ...is the man to beat this week. I don't expect an upset this week....the market leaders are all in decent form and one of them should see victory come Sunday evening.
Selections:
2.5 pts WIN D. Johnson @ 10.00
1.5 pts e/w W. Simpson @ 25/1 - 8 places
0.75 pts e/w M.Kaymer @ 110/1 - 8 places
0.75 pts e/w S.Lowry @ 100/1 - 8 places
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